On 29 June, as media gathered in Manchester to hear Andy Burnham's blueprint for transforming the UK, the 1824 Vagrancy Act was quietly repealed in Westminster, ending two centuries of criminalising homelessness. While charities welcomed the symbolic shift from punishment to prevention, the scale of the problem remains severe. The number of people sleeping rough on a single night in autumn 2025 in England reached a record high of 4,793, exceeding the previous peak of 4,751 in 2017 and marking the fourth consecutive annual increase, despite UK government spending on homelessness more than doubling in the past five years.
Burnham's Pledge and Historical Context
On Monday, addressing the nation for the first time as prime minister, Burnham declared his first instruction would be 'to end rough sleeping in our country.' This echoes his pledge on his first day as mayor of Greater Manchester in 2017, after spending early morning in Albert Square with people who had slept out overnight. He is not the first Labour leader to make such a vow: Tony Blair aimed to end the 'scandal' of rough sleeping in 1999, nearly achieving it before progress reversed under Conservative governments. Jeremy Corbyn had planned a similar announcement if elected.
Dr Maya Singer Hobbs of IPPR North discussed the Manchester rough sleeping case study with the Guardian, highlighting lessons for a national effort. 'As the mayor of Greater Manchester, he had no control over many of the things that drive homelessness—the welfare system, the Home Office, or the Ministry of Justice. As prime minister, he has those levers,' she said.
The Manchester Model: A Bed Every Night and Housing First
IPPR North's report, co-authored with Crisis, recommends national rollout of two Manchester-tested initiatives. Burnham's 'A Bed Every Night' programme expanded emergency overnight accommodation to anyone in need, not just those with 'priority need' like pregnant women or people with children. Housing First targets the most entrenched rough sleepers with high support needs due to addiction, mental illness, or other challenges, providing stable housing rather than hostels or B&Bs. Following success in the US and Finland, Housing First has been piloted in the West Midlands, Liverpool, and across Scotland.
'He expended political capital,' Singer Hobbs said of Burnham's focus on rough sleeping as mayor. 'People working in the sector told us that made it easier because they knew exactly what he wanted.' This forced effective collaboration across boroughs and agencies, including data sharing on rough sleeping locations.
Scaling Up: Challenges and Systemic Drivers
Although rough sleeping numbers in Manchester fell annually from 2018 to 2021, they crept back up post-pandemic. Local charities argued a nationwide approach is needed to tackle systemic drivers like the welfare system, Home Office policies, and Ministry of Justice actions. Singer Hobbs described 'the eternal balance of devolution': frontline services require hyper-local coordination, but prevention must be national to avoid policies in one department inadvertently increasing homelessness elsewhere. For example, increasing the 'move-on' period for refugees granted asylum could help.
Criticism of A Bed Every Night includes that the offer could be a bare minimum—a sleeping bag on a hostel floor—and night shelters have little capacity to move people out of homelessness. The UK government already spends billions on temporary accommodation, with many stuck due to lack of available housing. Research for the Children's Commissioner for England last year found 520 families had lived in a B&B for over a year.
IPPR North examined innovative approaches: Wigan leased long-term empty homes from private landlords at lower rates; Waltham Forest repurposed council-owned buildings. Burnham's challenge is ensuring temporary accommodation is a brief emergency provision on the way to a settled home. If he delivers the 'biggest council housebuilding programme since the postwar period,' as outlined in June, it could ease pressure on local authorities. However, his predecessor Keir Starmer's efforts to build 1.5m homes over five years stalled due to high interest rates, rising construction costs, and Brexit impacts.
Lessons from Scotland and Wales
Scotland's homelessness legislation is among the most progressive globally, but it has failed due to a mismatch between legal rights and practical resources. Most Scottish councils have Housing First, yet rough sleeping has risen since lockdown. Campaigners say momentum was lost after Covid, with the Scottish government lacking long-term oversight. Unlike England, Scotland and Wales abolished priority need, but this universal duty added a huge burden on financially struggling councils. It also attracted newly granted asylum seekers from other UK regions, a point exploited by Reform during the Holyrood election campaign. Despite this, IPPR North and Crisis argue the move is fairer and urge the UK government to roll it out nationwide with a timeline and additional resources.
Can Burnham End Rough Sleeping?
'I'd like to think so,' Singer Hobbs said, but cautioned that the funding announced on Monday is unlikely to be enough. Blair's rough sleepers' unit, led by Louise Casey, also coordinated 'Everyone In' at the start of lockdown, moving all rough sleepers into emergency accommodation within three days, showing what treating homelessness as a public health crisis can achieve.
Polling ahead of May's Holyrood elections found one in three Scots worried about losing their home, and 61% were more likely to vote for parties prioritising homelessness action. 'People sleeping rough is a really visible sign of our public realm not being fit for purpose,' Singer Hobbs said. Burnham understands homelessness is a political choice. Facing an electorate weary of broken promises, he has staked his government's reputation on ending rough sleeping.
