Wars in Ukraine and Iran Reveal Limits of Military Power
Even in an age of global rupture, there is still hope for international law, as developments in Ukraine and Iran demonstrate that military superpowers are not getting it all their own way. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the US-Israel attacks on Iran, while violating international law, have not resulted in the swift victories many expected.
Ukraine Stands Tall Against Russia
Russia, once seen as a formidable military power, was expected to overwhelm Ukraine. Despite Russia’s trampling of international law and its military and demographic advantages, and despite Donald Trump’s US betraying Ukraine, Ukraine remains standing. European support, though strong, has been insufficient.
US and Israel Fail to Topple Iran
In the Middle East, the US and Israel attacked Iran twice in blatant violation of international law. European leaders eventually acknowledged the illegality. Benjamin Netanyahu convinced Trump that one final push would topple the Islamic Republic. However, four months later, a memorandum of understanding (MoU) was agreed between the US and Iran, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Iranian control de facto recognised, frozen assets flowing, and oil sanctions temporarily waived. The MoU was the best deal Trump could secure, but it was not a good deal for the US or Israel, implicitly acknowledging that the strongest have not prevailed.
European Initiatives Offer Hope
A coalition of about 40 countries, led by France and the UK, assembled a taskforce to clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz and secure shipping. This initiative signals Europe’s willingness to play a constructive role, grounded in international law and coordinated with coastal states. However, the operation may not proceed due to US disinterest and Iran’s rejection of European warships.
Norway’s Quiet Legal Diplomacy
A more concrete European initiative has taken shape below the radar. Norway, with credibility in the Middle East and expertise in the law of the sea, provided legal counsel to Iran, Oman, Pakistan, and Qatar to ensure post-strait arrangements comply with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos). Though the US, Israel, and Iran are not parties to Unclos, both the US and Iran are interested in respecting its terms.
EU Sanctions on Israel Face Obstacles
European credibility remains in shreds regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. EU sanctions on extremist Israeli ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich require unanimity and will not pass. However, a ban on imports from illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank would require only a qualified majority vote. A majority of member states support this, with Italy signalling a possible shift. Germany remains opposed, arguing that banning settlement trade would be reminiscent of Nazi discrimination against Jews, an argument described as obscene.
EU high representative Kaja Kallas, pushed by a majority of member states, has formally asked the European Commission to table a proposal. Commission president Ursula von der Leyen may obfuscate, but the indefensibility of EU trade with illegal settlements is clear.
