Oman proposed a southern shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz near its shoreline, but the plan was abandoned after Iran attacked a vessel using the route on Thursday, according to sources familiar with the matter. The attack targeted a Singaporean-flagged ship, leading the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to withdraw support for the alternative lane.
Competing visions for the strait
The Strait of Hormuz, a 24-mile-wide waterway, is Iran's chief bargaining tool in negotiations with the US. Under a memorandum of understanding signed with Washington on 18 June, substantive talks over Iran's nuclear programme do not need to start until the lifting of the blockade—something Iran is required to use only "its best endeavours" to achieve. Iran has adopted a maximalist interpretation, decreeing that it alone can lift the blockade and resisting involvement of other countries or institutions.
Iran rejected the southern route developed with the IMO, which would have opened two new shipping lanes: one in Omani waters overseen by the US Joint Maritime Information Center, and one farther north close to Iran. The IMO believed it had Iran's agreement, but the attack on Thursday led to the plan's collapse.
Diplomatic implications
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated in Baghdad: "Any attempt to adopt new or separate arrangements from those currently being pursued by the Islamic Republic will only lead to further complications, delays in reopening the strait of Hormuz and an increase in tensions." The dispute over the route is likely to be discussed in talks in Doha.
Oman, a neutral nation, has crafted a detailed legal plan for the strait's management over the past two months, aiming to meet international law and secure Iran's eventual support. The plan includes a system where littoral states receive income from commercial shipping through voluntary contributions or payments for specific navigational services, rather than tolls.
Oman's delicate position
Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi explained: "We are not in favour of imposing tolls on passage through the strait of Hormuz, which is prohibited internationally—whereas service fees are legal, and discussions are currently under way with the Iranian side concerning them." Article 26 of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea forbids payment for mere passage, but Article 43 permits user states and strait states to fund maritime services cooperatively.
The Sultan of Oman raised this point during his meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday. In theory, Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have a naval taskforce ready to police an agreement on freedom of navigation. The Sultan argued that if the West adopts Oman's plan, such a force would be unnecessary.
Strategic stakes
For Iran, losing control of the strait would mean returning to negotiations on prewar terms and losing a key strategic tool. The longer the blockade lasts, the closer come the US midterm elections for President Donald Trump. Iran's government may face an inflation-ravaged electorate, but no election date is fixed.
The very fact that Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi held joint discussions in Muscat with Oman's Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Abdulaziz al-Hinai is a tacit acknowledgment that Tehran does not have sole decision-making power over the strait's future management.
