In a speculative thought experiment titled "Europe 2031," published by Brussels-based thinktankers, the European Union faces a dire future where US and China dominate artificial intelligence, leaving Europe's economy in ruins. The scenario, which went viral after the Trump administration blocked foreign nationals from using Anthropic's Claude Fable AI model, has sparked urgent discussions among EU policymakers about the need for technological sovereignty.
Scenario Details
The story unfolds from the perspective of a fictional Brussels staffer, Caroline Dubois, who witnesses America's massive AI investments—including a real-life $100bn deal between OpenAI and Nvidia, and a $300bn agreement between OpenAI and Oracle—while Europe hesitates. By 2031, the US monopolises 70% of the world's compute (semiconductor chips for AI datacentres). Europe's economy falters due to lack of AI adoption, populism surges, the euro wobbles, and cyber-attacks shred EU businesses.
Maximilian Negele, co-author and former Rand employee, says he wrote the scenario because of the "incredible translation barrier" between Brussels and San Francisco. "As somebody who travels to San Francisco quite a bit and talks to people there, what is happening in Europe just seemed like a slow-moving car crash to me," he notes.
Reception and Impact
The scenario has been read by members of the European Parliament and was brought up in track 1.5 discussions between British and German officials. The authors feel "vindicated" by the attention and by the brief US restriction on AI model access, which mirrored their predictions. They hope the scenario will spur Europe towards a dramatic course-correction on AI.
Nicolás Casares, a Spanish MEP, says: "This scenario, Europe 2031, I believe that some of the parts they mentioned can happen. But I think they are increasing – a bit – the alarms in order to call our attention." He adds: "We are buying a narrative that we need a lot of datacentres not to lose the race for AI. But this is crazy … we are paving the way for infrastructure that they will use and sometimes not allow us the possibility of using it."
Criticisms and Realities
Some readers point out that key deals cited in the scenario have collapsed. The $100bn OpenAI-Nvidia deal evaporated in February, and the $300bn OpenAI-Oracle deal seems doubtful as OpenAI burns money. The authors acknowledge potential bumps but defend their general direction. "I wouldn't rule out that there's some exuberance and that one or two AI companies might go bankrupt," says Negele. "But what we wanted to get across is a general feel for a version of what we think will happen."
The scenario is produced by Arq Foundation, a Brussels-based organisation that describes itself as "neither an advocacy NGO nor a venture-backed startup" and does not disclose its funders. The authors advocate for more datacentres in Europe, streamlined in AI zones with deregulated power and planning.
