Brexit Promises Under Scrutiny
A decade after the Brexit referendum, many of the bold claims made by the Leave campaign have been put to the test. From the infamous £350m for the NHS to warnings about bendy bananas, the reality of post-Brexit Britain is a mixed picture. According to a comprehensive analysis by the UK in a Changing Europe thinktank, several key pledges have not materialised as promised.
The £350m NHS Pledge
The most controversial promise was the claim on the side of a Vote Leave campaign bus that leaving the EU would free up £350m per week for the NHS. This figure was widely criticised as misleading at the time. After the referendum, the government dropped the specific pledge, though it did commit to increasing NHS funding. However, the additional £350m per week was never directly allocated. The Institute for Fiscal Studies noted that NHS spending has risen, but not by that specific amount.
Bendy Bananas and Red Tape
Leave campaigners often cited EU regulations on the curvature of bananas as an example of unnecessary bureaucracy. In reality, the EU did not ban bendy bananas; it had marketing standards that allowed them. After Brexit, the UK retained many EU regulations, and bendy bananas remain perfectly legal. The government has not prioritised removing such rules, focusing instead on trade deals and border controls.
Trade Deals and Economic Impact
One of the main arguments for Brexit was the ability to strike independent trade deals. The UK has signed agreements with Australia and New Zealand, but the benefits have been modest. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that Brexit has reduced UK GDP by around 4% compared to remaining in the EU. Trade with the EU has become more cumbersome due to customs checks and regulatory divergence.
Immigration Control
Leave campaigners promised to regain control of borders. Since Brexit, net migration has actually increased, reaching record levels. The points-based system introduced in 2021 has not reduced overall numbers, though it has changed the composition. The government has faced criticism for failing to curb irregular migration across the English Channel.
Fishing and Sovereignty
Promises to reclaim UK fishing waters have been partially fulfilled. The UK left the Common Fisheries Policy and now controls its own waters. However, trade deals with the EU and others have limited the extent to which British fishermen can benefit. Many fishing communities report that quotas are still unfavourable.
Conclusion
Overall, the analysis suggests that many high-profile Brexit promises have not been fully realised. The £350m for the NHS was abandoned, bendy bananas are still around, and economic growth has been slower than anticipated. While some aspects of sovereignty have been regained, the tangible benefits remain debated. According to the UK in a Changing Europe, the gap between promise and reality is significant.
