Five years after the referendum, three Guardian columnists have debated the legacy of Brexit, offering contrasting views on its impact on the UK's economy, sovereignty, and political landscape. The discussion, published on June 23, 2026, highlights the deep divisions that persist.
Economic Consequences and Sovereignty
One columnist argued that Brexit has caused significant economic damage, citing a 5% reduction in GDP compared to remaining in the EU, according to estimates from the Office for Budget Responsibility. They pointed to trade barriers, labor shortages, and reduced foreign investment as key factors. Another columnist countered that Brexit has restored parliamentary sovereignty and allowed the UK to diverge from EU regulations, potentially benefiting sectors like financial services.
Political Divisions and Future Outlook
The debate also touched on the political fallout. One participant noted that Brexit has exacerbated regional divides, with Scotland and Northern Ireland more skeptical of the outcome. They warned that the issue remains a source of instability. However, another columnist argued that the UK has successfully negotiated trade deals with Australia and New Zealand, though the economic impact of these deals remains modest.
Long-term Impact on Trade and Migration
According to the columnists, Brexit has reshaped migration patterns, with net migration from the EU falling sharply but non-EU migration rising. Trade with the EU has decreased, while trade with non-EU countries has increased, though not enough to offset the losses. One columnist emphasized that the full effects may take decades to materialize, but early signs are concerning for sectors like agriculture and manufacturing.
