Almost 145,000 Australians receiving support for autism on the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) are expected to be removed by the end of the decade, internal estimates show, as the federal government moves ahead with plans to narrow the focus of the “diluted” $52bn scheme toward those with significant and complex needs.
Government estimates show 241,000 participants to be removed by 2031
From 2028, almost two-thirds of the 241,000 participants set to lose access to the NDIS will be aged 18 or under, health department documents released to Guardian Australia under freedom of information laws show. The changes are part of the Albanese government’s endeavour to get the NDIS “back on track” financially and are expected to pass when parliament returns next month despite fierce criticism from advocates and politicians.
The government estimates the $52bn-a-year scheme will more than double in cost to $117bn a year in a decade’s time without intervention. People with autism are the fastest-growing cohort of the NDIS, making up 42% of the entire scheme. The majority (68%) of autistic participants who were given access to the scheme in the quarter ending in December 2025 were under 14.
Functional capacity test to reduce participant numbers
The health department expects 241,000 NDIS participants will eventually be shifted off the scheme by June 2031 following the introduction of the functional capacity test, to keep the number of participants at about 600,000. During that period, an additional 105,000 will be stopped from entering the scheme. The eligibility changes, among other proposals, are expected to reduce the scheme’s growth rate to just below 2% over the next four years – a significant drop from its peak of 23% in 2021-22.
Of the 241,000 no longer eligible for the NDIS in five years under the changes, 60%, or 144,600, will have autism or developmental delays listed as their primary disability, an internal executive brief within the health department showed. Sixty-four percent, or 154,240, will be aged 18 and under.
Government response and alternative supports
When asked by Guardian Australia if there were any planned programs for teenage Australians with autism, a government spokesperson did not address the question directly. “Some of the people no longer eligible for the NDIS may be well supported by community and mainstream services, and others through new foundational supports,” the spokesperson said.
The NDIS minister, Mark Butler, has repeatedly said the scheme is only intended for people with “significant and permanent disability”. “The scheme is really struggling. It’s growing far too fast. It’s frankly too big, not just for the budget. I mean, it’s costing an extraordinary amount of money for taxpayers, but it’s also dislocating a whole lot of other services and systems elsewhere in the care economy,” he told ABC radio this month.
The Thriving Kids program, jointly funded by federal and state governments, will begin offering support in October to children under nine with mild developmental delays and autism who are shifted off the NDIS. It is the first of the additional state-run disability support services – sometimes called foundational supports – planned to divert people away from the NDIS.
Human rights concerns and advocacy criticism
A parliamentary human rights committee’s report in June looked at the government’s proposed changes to wind back the size of the disability funding lifeline for many Australians, warning they could be retrogressive and limit human rights for some. The department’s brief shows the government acknowledges the changes might not leave everyone better off but insists they are necessary for the NDIS’s long-term viability.
“To the extent that some measures might limit certain rights, they are reasonable, necessary, and proportionate to ensure health-related supports can continue to be delivered to those with the most significant and complex needs, rather than being diluted across a broader class of people which the scheme was not designed to support,” the document said.
In a submission to a parliamentary inquiry into the bill, the grassroots autism advocacy group Autism Aspergers Advocacy Australia warned a functional capacity test for autistic people would be “especially problematic”. “Autism has very broad variation across a complex ‘spectrum’ of impairments,” the submission said. “No one has created a tool for functional assessment of autistic subjects though many have tried. There is no reason at all to expect that the NDIS will succeed.”
