New South Wales has recorded its second-driest April on record, according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), as much of the country heads into a dry spell. Rainfall was below average across every state last month, conditions likely to continue throughout winter, with the long-range forecast indicating El Niño is likely to develop.
Record Low Rainfall in NSW
Hugh McDowell, a senior climatologist at the BoM, said persistent high pressure across NSW led to the recent lack of rain. The state received only 13% of its average April rainfall, the second-lowest after 1997. Soil moisture is now very much below average in parts of NSW, impacting farmers and increasing bushfire risk in the coming season.
El Niño: The Elephant in the Room
Dr Mandy Freund, a climate scientist at the University of Melbourne, described the likely El Niño as the “elephant in the room.” She noted that while a strong event does not necessarily guarantee low rainfall, it increases the chances of dry conditions, with the largest impacts expected from September to November.
Ailie Gallant, an associate professor at Monash University, highlighted the “autumn predictability barrier,” which brings uncertainty about El Niño at this time of year. However, she emphasized that El Niños are very unlikely to bring very wet conditions, a concern for parts of the country entering their third year of drier-than-normal conditions.
Widespread Dry Conditions
The BoM observed multi-year rainfall deficiencies across the NSW western slopes, Queensland, large parts of west and south-west Western Australia, agricultural areas in South Australia, and much of Victoria and Tasmania. Scientists are still grappling with the role of climate change in drought, but there is an observable reduction in cool season rainfall over the south-east, particularly in Victoria and Tasmania.
Water storages across the east and south-west are less than 50% full, with storages in the Murray-Darling Basin at 48%. Gallant noted that to break the drought, very heavy and persistent rainfall is needed, but nothing on the horizon indicates that will happen.
Climate Context
Australia experienced its fourth-warmest year on record in 2025, with annual temperature about 1.23°C higher than average. Global heating, driven mainly by the burning of fossil fuels, has increased the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including heatwaves and bushfires.
The Northern Territory was the only jurisdiction nationwide that was wetter than normal in April.
