El Niño has officially begun, US scientists have announced, and the weather system could bring unprecedented weather to the UK. The phenomenon is one of the planet's most significant weather phenomena, affecting temperatures and rainfall around the world. But this year's El Niño could be different, as climate experts have warned it could be a 'super El Niño'.
What Is a Super El Niño?
The effects of a super El Niño could be worse than a regular one. They are typically more intense, occurring when ocean temperatures exceed 2°C above average. Scientists have said they're already concerned about the implications of this year's El Niño, with Professor Adam Scaife, head of monthly to decadal prediction at the UK Met Office, issuing a harrowing warning.
'The current El Niño is… riding on top of a substantial amount of global warming,' he told the BBC. 'This means that the actual temperatures in affected regions could well be unprecedented, as the warming from El Niño is being topped up by climate change.'
Global Warming Amplifies Effects
An El Niño naturally boosts the Earth's temperatures during the cycle, but the Earth is already hotter than ever before – meaning the effects could be deadly. Mohamed Adow, director of campaign group Power Shift Africa, told the BBC: 'An El Niño declaration is not just another weather forecast – for millions of people, it is a deadly siren to be feared. It means failed rains, dying crops, rising food prices, and families pushed to the edge yet again.'
Impact on the UK
The UK may have to brace for yet another year of record-breaking temperatures, which is already being driven by climate change. We have already marked our country's hottest May day in recorded history, a record which was smashed on two consecutive days over the late bank holiday. Storm tracks across the Atlantic could also impact how and where winter storms develop in the UK, following this year's earlier storms of Dave, Chandra, Ingrid, and Goretti.
What Is an El Niño?
El Niño refers to the warming of the sea surface temperature and occurs every two to seven years, according to the Met Office. It is declared when the temperatures in the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean reach 0.5°C above average. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said temperatures in the central and tropical Pacific Ocean have already passed the 0.5°C threshold. The effects of the phenomenon typically peak towards the end of the year, usually in December.
