Climate change is driving increasingly frequent heavy rain events in the United States, leading to deadly and damaging flash floods that are expected to become more common and intense as the crisis worsens, according to experts. Over the past month, states including Alaska, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania have experienced record rainfall, triggering flash floods across the country.
A year after deadly flooding in central Texas swept through a children's summer camp, the state and other regions are again facing unusually heavy precipitation. Despite forecasts from climate scientists and tragic events like the flood at Camp Mystic in Texas, experts argue that some government officials are not investing enough money and political capital to upgrade infrastructure and restrict development to accommodate the new, wetter normal.
Infrastructure built for a different climate
“We have basically built for a climate that no longer exists, and retrofitting our infrastructure is a slow and expensive process,” said Alice Hill, a senior fellow for energy and the environment at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Adding to that challenge is the fact that in many places, climate change – the term – is a dirty word, and that can reduce the initiative to make sure that any investments made today can carry the excess rainfall.”
Heavy precipitation events have become more common because warmer oceans and air increase evaporation, putting more water vapor into the atmosphere, explained Jennifer Francis, senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center. That vapor acts as a greenhouse gas, creating a positive feedback loop, and serves as “a fuel for storms” by providing more moisture for hurricanes and other systems.
Flash flood risks in varied terrains
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, heavy rainfall is more likely to cause flash flooding in hilly areas where soil absorption is limited, densely populated regions where highways and buildings reduce water infiltration, and canyons where hikers can be trapped by rapidly rising water.
Much of the country is not prepared for extreme weather, experts say, partly because some cities still rely on pipes over a century old. “That system just can’t carry this kind of rainfall,” Hill said. Cities like Houston and New York City have also continued to allow developers to build in floodplains.
Development pressures in floodplains
In central Texas, the hilly landscape leaves limited space for construction, said Jim Blackburn, an environmental law professor at Rice University. “So that flat land next to the Guadalupe River has always been, from a Texas viewpoint, prime for development,” he noted. To prevent catastrophic property damage and deaths, governments must introduce regulations prohibiting building homes and businesses in floodplains, Blackburn argued. But in Texas and other states, people “generally resist flooding regulations and try to find our way around them as best they can,” he added.
At Camp Mystic, where 25 campers, two counselors, and the director died during flooding, the owners successfully appealed to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to remove some buildings from a 100-year flood map, allowing the camp to operate and expand in a potentially dangerous area. In Harris County, Texas, where Hurricane Harvey caused over $125 billion in damage in 2017, homeowners and developers have appealed to FEMA to remove more than 6,500 homes from the floodplain map, avoiding stricter building rules and flood insurance costs, according to the Houston Chronicle.
FEMA flood map revisions and political challenges
FEMA is now drafting a new flood zone map to adjust for increased rainfall rates. “People use these maps for decisions on buying real estate. They use these maps to determine the vulnerability of hazardous waste facilities, various types of sensitive private-sector and government facilities, and hospitals. We want those to be free from flooding during flood emergencies because, among other things, we need to get to emergency rooms,” Blackburn said. Real estate developers are concerned about the potential new map because it could create liability issues and make properties in the new floodplain less attractive to buyers. “They may have promoted it as not being in the floodplain, and they will have to go out and change all those statements,” Blackburn said.
People in Texas and other red states advocating for stronger regulations and infrastructure upgrades face another challenge: distaste for the phrase “climate change,” Blackburn said. The Republican Party of Texas stated in its 2024 platform that it opposes “environmentalism, or ‘climate change’ initiatives, that obstruct legitimate business interests and private property use.” Efforts to adapt have also encountered federal obstacles. In April 2025, the Trump administration announced the elimination of the Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities program, which had been slated to provide $882 million in grants for disaster-preparedness projects like improving stormwater infrastructure. In December, a judge ordered FEMA to restore the funding.
Sponge cities and ongoing risks
Some US cities have invested in the “sponge city” concept, designed to absorb and hold excess rainwater. “That could be through a park, converting impermeable surfaces to permeable surfaces like grass, creating easier water flows for the rainfall,” Hill said. Despite the Trump administration’s reversal on infrastructure investments, experts say adapting the country to additional rainfall will take years. In the meantime, government officials are trying to keep people safe amid the summer’s heavy rains.
In Missouri, a summer camp experienced flash flooding this month; more than 200 children and staff were evacuated via helicopter. No one at the camp died, but one woman, Faith Gregory, died after her home was swept away. In Texas, flash flood emergency orders were issued Thursday in two counties, including the one where Camp Mystic is located. Governor Greg Abbott reported two deaths, noting, “I am informed that the loss of life is not a camper,” and that more than 70 people had been rescued. “Our No 1 focus is saving lives.”
