The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has officially declared that an El Niño event is now underway in the tropical Pacific Ocean, bringing hotter and drier conditions for Australia. The bureau warned that climate change could amplify the impacts, including extreme heat and bushfire risks.
El Niño Confirmed
In its latest update, the BoM stated that El Niño is now locked in place, as the atmosphere has responded to higher-than-average sea surface temperatures. The weakening of east-to-west trade winds and changes in pressure and cloud patterns are consistent with El Niño conditions.
Forecast Strength
Forecasts indicate a strong or very strong El Niño event, though the bureau noted that strength does not necessarily equate to strong impacts on Australia's climate. The strength is measured by how much sea surface temperatures in a specific region of the tropical Pacific exceed the long-term average.
Potential Impacts
Past El Niño events have been linked to lower winter and spring rainfall, particularly in eastern Australia, higher daytime temperatures in the south, and increased frost risk due to clearer skies. However, the bureau cautioned that past patterns are less reliable predictors in a warming climate. El Niño also increases the risk of bushfires and coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef.
Climate Change Amplification
Felicity Gamble, the BoM's technical lead for extended prediction, emphasized that the current conditions are unprecedented due to global ocean heat. She noted that ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific have risen rapidly in recent months, and the event is emerging in a world that is 1.5°C hotter. Climate change is expected to amplify anticipated impacts, such as heat and fires.
Global Context
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Japan Meteorological Agency have already declared El Niño, using slightly different methods and thresholds. Climate experts warn that El Niño-related weather extremes are being supercharged by global heating, leading to hotter temperatures, fiercer droughts, and worse flooding. A record warm year for the planet is expected next year.
Australia's Preparedness
The Climate Council described El Niño and greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels as a 'dangerous double act' for Australia. CEO Amanda McKenzie warned that the combination of climate pollution and El Niño will hit many people hard, particularly farmers already facing drought conditions and those in urban bushland fringes at greater fire risk.
