A leading food policy expert has issued a stark warning that the United Kingdom could be mere weeks away from experiencing significant disruptions to its food supply, including shortages, price hikes, and potential stockouts of essential items. Professor Tim Lang, founder of the Centre for Food Policy at City St George's University and author of a major report on UK food security, highlighted the escalating risks in an interview with Metro.
Carbon Dioxide Shortage Threatens Supermarket Basics
Professor Lang pinpointed fresh fruit and frozen food as two supermarket staples that could become increasingly scarce due to a looming carbon dioxide shortage, directly linked to the ongoing conflict in Iran. This warning follows reports that the government has activated contingency plans, codenamed Exercise Turnstone, to address potential shortages of products like meat and beer if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and no peace deal is reached by June.
Critical Role of CO2 in Food Production
The carbon dioxide used in the food industry is a byproduct of manufacturing gas-based fertiliser, which is itself under strain from rising gas prices. In his February 2025 report, Just In Case, prepared for the National Preparedness Commission, Professor Lang detailed how CO2 is essential for:
- Extending the shelf life of perishable foods
- Stunning animals humanely before slaughter
- Fumigating spices to ensure safety
- Creating the carbonation in soda drinks and beer
He stated, "If this carries on for a few weeks, you'll find some foods beginning to get harder to get and more expensive, and some will stop."
Oil Prices Pose the Greatest Risk
Beyond the CO2 crisis, Professor Lang identified skyrocketing oil prices as the number one risk to British food security at present. He explained, "The food system runs on oil. There is no storage. Food moves all the time. So if you're not going to have fuel, or if the fuel that moves the food doubles in price, well, the food prices go up."
Government and Retail Responses
While retailers, represented by Andrew Opie of the British Retail Consortium, assert there are currently no signs of impending shortages and view government contingency planning as normal for resilience, they acknowledge inflationary pressures from the Middle East conflict. Opie urged the government to reduce non-commodity energy costs to alleviate business burdens.
In response to customer concerns, Opie advised, "Rule number one, stop thinking 'me, me, me', think 'us ourselves'." He recommended buying extra food cautiously and fostering community support among neighbors.
Official Reassurance Amid Growing Concerns
A government spokesperson maintained that the UK has a resilient food system, with no expected impact on availability or short-term disruption, but pledged ongoing monitoring. However, Professor Lang criticised the lack of preparedness, warning that inaction could lead to greater public fear during a crisis.
As the situation evolves, experts stress the need for proactive measures to safeguard food supplies against the dual threats of geopolitical instability and economic pressures.
