Australian house prices have fallen slightly in recent months, but remain nearly double what they were a decade ago, according to new data. Major banks predict further drops of 2% to 3% by year-end, but experts say this will not significantly improve housing affordability after years of rapid price growth.
Price decline minimal compared to long-term growth
Monthly data from Cotality shows the median dwelling price in Australia peaked at $944,000 in March 2026, then retreated to $937,000 by the end of June – a 0.7% decline. However, over the past 10 years, the median home price has risen by more than $400,000, almost doubling.
“Even with a 10% drop from the March peak, the median dwelling would cost more than 15 years of a household’s disposable income,” said Greg Jericho, a Guardian Australia columnist who analyzed the data.
Affordability at record lows
Jericho calculated that in 2016, the average dwelling price in Australia was equivalent to 13 years and four months of a typical household’s disposable income. By March 2026, that figure had risen to more than 17 years. The recent 0.7% drop barely moves the needle on affordability.
The data underscores a decade-long trend of home ownership becoming increasingly out of reach for many Australians, despite recent price corrections.
