In a striking example of how speculative online gambling can intersect with global politics, traders appear to have reaped enormous profits by correctly betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
The High-Stakes Wager That Paid Off
The dramatic events unfolded on so-called prediction markets, online platforms where users bet against each other on the outcome of future events. These are typically binary bets, such as yes/no or higher/lower scenarios, covering topics from political nominations to stock market movements.
Data from the site Polymarket.com shows that on Friday, 2 January, a seemingly new trader placed a $30,000 bet on the market titled 'Maduro out by January 31, 2026?'. Following the shock announcement of Maduro's capture on the morning of Saturday, 3 January, that single investment reportedly yielded profits of $436,759.61, a windfall realised in a matter of hours.
How the Market Anticipated the News
The swift movement in the market's odds suggests some participants may have had advance insight. At 3pm GMT on 2 January, the implied probability of Maduro leaving office by month's end stood at just 5.5%. This figure began to climb sharply in the early hours of 3 January, reaching 11% by 6am, 28.5% by 6:30am, and 56.5% by 7:30am. By 9:30am, as news broke, the market was trading at an almost certain 99%.
A related wager, 'Maduro in US custody by January 31?', also saw two prescient trades matched at prices implying just an 11% and 22% chance early on Saturday, before similarly jumping above 0.99.
The Rapid Rise of Prediction Markets
While not a new concept—a UK site called Flutter.com launched a similar idea 26 years ago—prediction markets have recently exploded in popularity, particularly in the United States. According to a report from crypto firms Dune and Keyrock, the total volume of bets has surged from under $100 million in early 2024 to over $13 billion.
The sector has also gained political connections. Donald Trump Jr, the former president's eldest son, has taken advisory roles at two of the best-known prediction market companies, Kalshi and Polymarket.
These platforms, which often operate using cryptocurrency, exist in a regulatory grey area, raising questions about their potential for insider trading and influence on real-world events. Polymarket has been contacted for comment on the trades surrounding President Maduro.
