The United Kingdom, enduring its fifth heatwave of the season with temperatures reaching 38°C in parts of England and Wales, may finally get a break from the scorching conditions next week, according to Jim Dale, founder of the British Weather Services. However, the prolonged drought that has left the ground hard and cracked could turn any sudden downpour into a flash flood risk.
Forecast: Rain on the Horizon
Jim Dale told Metro that the UK is likely to 'get a break' from the heat at the turn of next week. Temperatures will start 'leaking away' from tomorrow, though the South East, East Anglia, and London will remain in the heat zone with possible highs of 35°C, and around 30°C early next week.
'Then we really start cooling down quite markedly after Tuesday, and there might be some rain around Tuesday. That is your first taster,' Dale said. 'There will definitely be rain in the north and the west, and it will start to move into the South East, where it is most barren.'
Drought and Its Aftermath
Drought conditions have been officially declared in more than two-thirds of England after scant rain in over a month, following a record-dry July. Parks and fields have turned bone-dry, and Wales provisionally recorded its hottest August day on record with temperatures reaching 35.3°C in Gogerddan, according to the Met Office.
After the initial rain, the weather is set to turn fresher, with what Dale describes as 'a traditional summer with stop and start sunshine and showers.' He noted that the gradual rain will 'alleviate some of the difficulties like dust and wildfire problems.'
Flash Flood Risk
But the flipside of heavy downpours after prolonged drought is the risk of flash flooding. With the ground hard and unable to absorb sudden water, Dale warned: 'A big downpour is going to sit on the surface, which is when you could get flash flooding.'
He drew parallels to the 1976 record heatwave, which was followed by 'widespread floods' due to prolonged rain and thunderstorms, a scenario that could repeat in some parts of the UK this summer.
Long-Term Outlook
Despite the expected rain, Dale cautioned that the drought situation will not be easily resolved. 'It's going to take weeks of sustained rain to get us back to where we need to, and the damage has been done – economic damage and damage to the crops,' he said.
As for a possible sixth heatwave, Dale predicts that once temperatures drop next week, 'that could be it as far as major temperatures are concerned.' He added, 'I can't at the moment see a sixth heatwave.'
Extreme weather, including longer-lasting severe heatwaves, is set to become the new norm, exacerbated by climate change and fossil fuel consumption.
