Big Oil Companies Bank $30 Million Hourly in War Windfall Profits
Exclusive analysis reveals that the world's top 100 oil and gas corporations earned more than $30 million every hour in unearned profit during the initial month of the US-Israeli war in Iran. This staggering figure highlights how major fossil fuel firms are capitalizing on global conflict while ordinary consumers face escalating energy costs.
Massive Windfall Projections Through 2026
According to data from intelligence provider Rystad Energy analyzed by Global Witness, oil and gas companies stand to make an additional $234 billion by the end of 2026 if oil prices maintain their current trajectory. The conflict pushed oil prices to an average of $100 per barrel in March, generating approximately $23 billion in war-related windfall profits for that month alone.
Saudi Aramco emerges as the biggest beneficiary, projected to make $25.5 billion in war profits by 2026 if prices remain elevated. This comes on top of the company's already substantial earnings of $250 million daily between 2016 and 2023. Other major winners include Russian energy giants Gazprom, Rosneft, and Lukoil, collectively positioned to gain $23.9 billion in Iran-related war profits.
Climate Action Opponents Prosper Amid Crisis
The analysis identifies key opponents of climate action as primary beneficiaries of this profit surge. ExxonMobil, with its history of climate change denial, stands to gain $11 billion in unearned war profits by 2026, while Shell would receive a $6.8 billion boost. Chevron follows closely with projected windfall profits of $9.2 billion.
These companies have seen their market valuations skyrocket since the conflict began, with ExxonMobil's worth increasing by $118 billion and Shell's by $34 billion in the month following the war's outbreak.
Consumers and Nations Bear the Burden
The excess profits directly impact ordinary citizens who face higher prices for vehicle fuel and home energy, along with businesses struggling with increased operational costs. Dozens of countries including Australia, South Africa, Italy, Brazil, and Zambia have implemented fuel tax cuts to assist consumers, resulting in reduced revenue for essential public services.
The European Union's fossil fuel expenses have surged by €22 billion since the war began, prompting finance ministers from Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Austria to advocate for windfall taxes on war profits. They argue such measures would "finance temporary relief for consumers and curb rising inflation without additional burdens on public budgets."
Long-Term Energy Market Disruption
Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, described the Iran war as "the biggest shock ever to the global energy market," suggesting prolonged market disruption. UN climate chief Simon Stiell warned that "fossil fuel dependency is ripping away national security and sovereignty, replacing it with subservience and rising costs."
Energy experts emphasize that renewable energy investments offer protection against such volatility. In the UK alone, wind and solar power prevented £1 billion in gas imports during March, with wind power saving consumers an estimated £100 billion from 2010 to 2025.
Calls for Policy Intervention
Patrick Galey of Global Witness stated: "Moments of global crisis continue to translate into bumper profits for oil majors while ordinary people pay the price. Until governments kick their fossil fuel addiction, all of our spending power will be held hostage to the whims of strongmen."
Energy policy experts advocate using windfall profit taxes to accelerate green energy transitions rather than deepening fossil fuel dependence. Jess Ralston of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit noted: "Investing in net zero technologies is not only the route to permanent energy security, it's also the only way to get the climate system back into balance."
The analysis methodology compared free cash flow from oil and gas production at $100 per barrel prices against pre-war $70 prices, calculating upstream profits after taxes, royalties, and operational expenditures. Major oil companies including Saudi Aramco, Shell, and TotalEnergies declined to comment on the findings, while ExxonMobil, Chevron, Gazprom, Petrobras, and ADNOC did not respond to requests for comment.
