British households are facing an additional £200 on their annual food bill this year due to the war in Iran, according to food and farming experts who are calling for urgent government intervention. The President of the National Farmers' Union (NFU) and the CEO of the Food and Drink Federation (FDF) have jointly urged ministers to support the industry as skyrocketing costs threaten to drive up shop prices further.
Rising Costs and Predictions
The FDF's latest forecast predicts that rising food prices will cost the average household an extra £200 by the end of 2026. The industry body is calling on the government to provide financial support to businesses at critical points in the food supply chain, particularly for energy bills. Meanwhile, farming leaders are pleading with the Chancellor to postpone a planned 5p fuel duty increase.
A recent poll revealed that four in five people are concerned that the Iran war will make food more expensive. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since late February has sent oil and gas prices soaring and triggered shortages of fertiliser, driving costs up for farmers by up to 70%.
Energy Costs Impacting Supply Chain
The FDF's forecast from early April indicated that food inflation could exceed 9% by the end of the year, costing the average household £200. CEO Karen Betts stated: "If the conflict in the Middle East does not resolve quite soon, there is a risk that prices will go higher than that. Energy is embedded in every part of the food supply chain. If energy costs go up, it has a significant impact on prices." This has led to increased costs for logistics, freight, plastics, packaging, and cleaning chemicals. Electricity prices for many businesses are expected to spike when contracts renew in the next three to six months.
To prevent these costs from being passed on to consumers, the FDF is urging the government to provide support for energy-intensive processes such as sugar refining, bread making, coffee roasting, and dairy processing. Betts also wants ministers to delay and review new regulations that, while beneficial, are costly for businesses at this time, including aligning food laws with the EU and restricting advertising of less healthy foods.
Urgent Plea from Farmers
NFU President Tom Bradshaw described an "immediate cash flow impact" from rising fertiliser, red diesel, and gas prices. Red diesel, used in agricultural vehicles, has increased from 76p to 104p per litre, while fertiliser costs could rise 70% since the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Bradshaw said: "It is now 69 days since this crisis started, and even if there is a resolution immediately, that is going to have a knock-on impact well into the future."
The NFU is urging the Chancellor to reverse plans to increase fuel duty by 5p in September, arguing that keeping the temporary cut from 2022 would help farmers and support society as a whole. They also want the government to delay the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, due in January 2027, which could increase fertiliser costs by £50 to £70 per tonne. Bradshaw stressed: "It is crucial for farmers to continue producing the country's food for everybody."
Metro has approached the Treasury for comment.
