Chalmers' Fairness Budget: A Strategic Gamble or a Genuine Shift?
Jim Chalmers has presented a budget that some label an 'extraordinary political gamble,' but perhaps it is the opposite. While tabloids call it a 'madhouse budget' and the opposition walks into a trap, Chalmers appears more pragmatic than ideological.
The wave of voters who swung right at the Farrer byelection, seeking action, may feel their protest vote yielded an instant result from a centre-left government. Meanwhile, media outlets focus on broken promises. During the 2025 election campaign, the prime minister firmly ruled out changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing.
Addressing Intergenerational Equity
With 94 seats in parliament, the Liberals weakened, and One Nation rising due to the widening gap between rich and poor, now is the time to tackle intergenerational equity. Labor aims to secure its long-term future by pulling a John Howard—breaking promises, making hard decisions, and ensuring stable government.
As columnist Shaun Carney notes, the prime minister, treasurer, and foreign affairs minister have held their posts throughout. With Albanese, Chalmers, and Wong, Labor has an opportunity but must provide both hope and action.
Younger Voters Take Center Stage
Sorry, baby boomers, you are no longer the main voting bloc. There will be 700,000 additional Gen Z voters at the next federal election, making millennials and Gen Z half the electorate. What the government has done will not be enough unless it is the start of something bigger.
Currently, it is a Labor halfway house: negative gearing grandfathered, a paltry tax cut for wages, and no mention of a tax on gas exports. There is also the issue of disincentivising investment in shares and startups.
Politically Wedging the Coalition
Labor has politically wedged the Coalition, which defends older, wealthier voters versus younger people working hard and paying more tax on wages than investors on passive income. This budget is about fairness and a start. The ultimate takeout may be: thank God someone finally tried to do something.
Data shows those leaning to One Nation skew older, lower income, and less likely to be university educated. The Coalition is unlikely to win them back by pushing against budget changes on family trusts and investment properties. A YouGov poll found half of respondents agreed the government should reduce tax concessions for property investors, with only 28% disagreeing.
Building Trust and Fairness
Surveys showed strong support for changing stage-three tax cuts for similar reasons—self-interest exists, but so does the desire to leave children a prosperous future. A legacy of fairness is a great aspiration, especially if you also grow the pie by reducing red tape, supporting small business, and improving productivity.
The other important legacy is trust, meaning good-faith decision-making. Chalmers prosecuted his budget confidently, as if he understood and believed in it. It is as if Albanese has finally let his treasurer off the leash. The Coalition, meanwhile, toys with aligning with One Nation to survive one day and gaslights us the next by pretending it isn't.
Let's see if that 'never, ever, ever' promise lasts.
