The race for the NFL's Coach of the Year award has rarely been more compelling or complex. In a 2024 season defined by chaos, dramatic turnarounds, and shattered expectations, the usual formula for the honour—simply rewarding the biggest surprise—has been broken. This year, the award should recognise the coach who navigated the toughest challenges and engineered the most ingenious solutions.
A Season of Unprecedented Turnarounds
The candidate pool is exceptionally deep. It has been a year where recent division winners have faltered and former also-rans have risen simultaneously. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC West would make him the clear favourite. Yet, in this uniquely unpredictable year, he finds himself competing with at least five other exceptional contenders, each with a formidable case.
Here is how the ballot should be structured, from a remarkable fifth place to the undeniable frontrunner.
5. Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears (11-5)
Voters have a historical affinity for coaches who transform a quarterback, and Ben Johnson has done precisely that with Caleb Williams. Johnson hasn't just fixed the rookie; he has unlocked his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears' offense ranks fourth in offensive EPA per play, showcasing sustained excellence, not a fleeting hot streak.
Johnson instilled a clear offensive vision in Chicago, built on a powerful run game, creative play-action, and a scheme that generates open receivers. Williams has thrived within it, becoming more decisive and less reckless. For a first-year head coach who arrived as the league's hottest candidate, living up to such hype is rare. However, his case is slightly tempered by a defense ranked 25th in success rate, relying heavily on unpredictable turnovers. The foundation for long-term success is undeniable, but in this stellar field, he places fifth.
4. Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)
Another first-time head coach, Liam Coen, has engineered a rapid revival in Jacksonville. He has Trevor Lawrence playing the best football of his career and overseen a defensive remake that now ranks fifth in EPA per play. Perhaps more impressively, Coen has masterfully managed an unusually raw coaching staff filled with first-timers—a setup that often collapses under pressure.
When the season threatened to derail after a midseason wobble, Coen simplified rather than overcorrected. He recentered the offense around the run game and Jakobi Meyers, unleashing Lawrence's mobility. The result is a seven-game winning streak and the AFC's No. 3 seed. He inherits a small knock for taking over a talented roster, but his ability to maximise that talent is unquestionable.
3. Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
Mike Macdonald's candidacy hinges on a bold, season-defining quarterback decision. Moving on from Geno Smith to sign Sam Darnold could have ended Seattle's hopes early. Instead, Darnold became an MVP frontrunner through midseason. Although his form has dipped since, the Seahawks never stopped winning.
Macdonald nailed his critical offseason moves: quarterback, coordinator, and establishing a clear identity. Serving as the defensive play-caller, he has built the league's second-ranked defense, a unit that has carried the team through offensive slumps. With a preseason win total set at 7.5, Macdonald has obliterated expectations, guiding Seattle to 13 wins and the NFC's No. 1 seed.
2. Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots (13-3)
What Mike Vrabel has accomplished in New England transcends a mere turnaround. Last year's Patriots were directionless and talent-poor, seemingly facing a multi-year rebuild around rookie Drake Maye. Instead, they are AFC East champions with the conference's best point differential, and Maye is an MVP favourite.
While critics point to a soft schedule, every opponent initially saw New England as a weak spot. Vrabel's fingerprints are everywhere: his personnel decisions hit, he reinstalled professionalism by bringing back Josh McDaniels, and he seamlessly handled a midseason defensive coordinator change. The offense now ranks first in EPA per play. Vrabel was tasked with making the Patriots respectable; he has made them contenders.
The Ultimate Problem-Solver Claims the Top Spot
1. Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
The core duty of a head coach is to position players for success and solve problems. No candidate has fulfilled this brief like Kyle Shanahan. His challenges have been unparalleled: season-long injuries to stars like Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Brock Purdy, and George Kittle, coupled with an offseason cap purge that stripped the roster.
Yet, the 49ers stand at 12-4, with a chance to secure the NFC's top seed in the final week. Building the sixth-ranked offense with Christian McCaffrey as the only constant is a remarkable feat. This has been the most adaptive version of Shanahan, with the offense shapeshifting weekly and a defense surviving on tenacity. Expectation bias often hurts such perennial winners, but this award should reward solving the hardest problems. In 2024, no coach has solved more than Kyle Shanahan.
