Swalwell's Sudden Exit Sends California Governor Race Into Turmoil
The race to replace Gavin Newsom as governor of California has been plunged into disarray following the shocking downfall of its apparent frontrunner, Eric Swalwell. The Democratic congressman suspended his campaign amid allegations of sexual assault and misconduct, which he has vehemently denied, and subsequently resigned his seat in Congress. This development has left the state's Democrats scrambling to reassess their options in an already bizarre and fluid contest.
A Race Thrown Into Complete Disarray
Democrats had already been fretting about the governor's race, which featured a tangle of candidates with strong résumés but little star power vying to lead the country's most populous state and the world's fourth largest economy. Swalwell's sudden exit has only intensified the uncertainty. According to Kim Nalder, a political science professor at Sacramento State, "This really tosses the table over." She noted that Democratic voters are now likely to take another look at candidates who may not have been at the top of their lists initially.
With the candidate filing deadline passed and ballots scheduled to land in voters' mailboxes early next month ahead of the 2 June primary election, the timing could not be more critical. The veteran Democratic strategist Garry South, who has worked on four California gubernatorial campaigns, described this as the state's "most curious" governor's race in recent memory.
Democrats Scramble to Fill the Void
Amid the upheaval, Swalwell's seven Democratic rivals are aggressively vying to win over his former supporters. Early indicators suggest that Katie Porter, a former US representative, and billionaire Tom Steyer, the leading Democrats in the race, are most likely to absorb the voters who favored Swalwell. However, both have faced skepticism from Democratic voters. Other lower-polling candidates, including former US health and human services secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and San José mayor Matt Mahan, also believe they have an opening.
South emphasized that the Democratic field is missing an obvious successor and lacks the shine of a big personality that California voters have come to expect. "It's just really a morass," he said, highlighting the chaotic nature of the race.
Background of a Fluid Contest
For much of the past year, the race to replace Gavin Newsom has proceeded like an afterthought, overshadowed by Donald Trump's turbulent return to the White House and last year's all-encompassing redistricting campaign. There was an expectation that a breakout star would emerge to capture Democrats' imagination, but that has not materialized. Democrats spent months awaiting decisions from high-profile figures like Kamala Harris and Alex Padilla, but both ultimately declined to run. Rob Bonta, the state's attorney general, also reconsidered a potential bid but decided against it.
At the party's convention in San Francisco in February, support fractured, and no Democrat won enough delegates to secure an endorsement for governor. Jessica Taylor, who analyzes governors' races for the Cook Political Report, noted, "There was such a vacuum in the race and there was no well-known candidate to fill it. No candidate has risen to meet the moment yet."
Swalwell's Downfall and Allegations
In recent weeks, Swalwell had started to gain momentum, scooping up high-profile endorsements and edging ahead in polling. The seven-term congressman, who built a national profile by sparring with Trump, cast himself as the right choice to lead California and oppose the president. However, on Friday, the San Francisco Chronicle reported that a female former staffer accused him of sexual assault twice. CNN published similar accounts hours later, along with allegations from three other women of Swalwell sending unwanted explicit photos or messages.
The reaction was immediate: prominent backers, including elected officials, unions, and donors, abandoned him, and there was an exodus of campaign staff. In a statement announcing his resignation from Congress, Swalwell apologized for "mistakes in judgment I've made in my past" but vowed to fight the "serious, false allegations." A lawyer representing Swalwell stated to multiple media outlets that he "categorically and unequivocally denies each and every allegation of sexual misconduct and assault."
Implications for the Primary and General Election
The latest turmoil has worsened fears among California Democrats that a failure to consolidate the field might produce the once-unthinkable prospect of two Republicans advancing to the November general election. Under California's "jungle" primary system, all candidates run on the same ballot, with the top two vote-getters advancing regardless of party. A fractured Democratic field could theoretically allow two Republican candidates to slip through.
However, most analysts believe this outcome is highly unlikely, thanks in large part to Donald Trump. The president recently endorsed Steve Hilton, a conservative commentator, over Riverside county sheriff Chad Bianco on the Republican side. If Republican voters coalesce around Hilton, Bianco's support may slide, allowing at least one Democrat to surpass him. Dan Schnur, who teaches political communication at UC Berkeley and USC, said, "Donald Trump has all-but ensured that California will have a Democratic governor next year. Eric Swalwell has just made it much more difficult to figure out who that Democrat is going to be."
Current State of the Race
Katie Porter, once seen as a potential frontrunner, has been hampered by negative viral moments that renewed questions about her temperament. Tom Steyer has leaned on his personal fortune, pumping roughly $120 million of his own money into advertising, enough to launch him toward the front of the pack but not yet to break away. On Sunday, Porter quoted a line from a San Francisco Chronicle opinion column suggesting Democrats could "pull victory from the jaws of defeat" by coalescing around her campaign. Steyer touted a new endorsement from Jared Huffman, a California congressman.
Matt Mahan has seen an increase in outside support, with a Super Pac backing him reporting a flood of new donations, including a $1 million contribution from developer Rick Caruso. A poll released in March by UC Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies showed Swalwell and Porter each drawing 13% of California voters, with Steyer at 10%, but all were edged out by Republicans Hilton and Bianco at 17% and 16%, respectively.
Christian Grose, a political science professor at the University of Southern California, estimates the chances of a Republican-on-Republican general election contest are between 5% and 8% at best. He believes Trump's endorsement makes it likely a Democrat and Republican will advance, with the Democrat holding the advantage in a state where they outnumber Republicans two to one. As for which Democrat has the best odds, Grose said, "It's a crazy election. Who knows what comes next?"
