Anas Sarwar's Strategic Break from Starmer Amid Tightening Holyrood Race
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has publicly declared that there have been 'too many mistakes' by Number 10 since Keir Starmer assumed power as Prime Minister. This bold statement marks a significant gambit as Sarwar attempts to shift the political focus onto the Scottish National Party's record in government, with the Holyrood elections now just two months away.
Voter Discontent and Strategic Calculations
Recent focus groups organized by public opinion researchers More in Common reveal a deeply disillusioned electorate in Glasgow's southside, where Sarwar himself resides. Participants who backed Labour in the 2024 general election expressed profound disappointment with the Labour government's early performance, frustration with the SNP's governance record, and weariness over what they described as 'scandal after scandal' in public life.
One betting shop manager named Alex captured the prevailing sentiment: 'People look at Holyrood and think: Let's give them all a bloody nose.' This widespread dissatisfaction with Westminster politics informed Sarwar's calculated decision to call for Keir Starmer to stand aside, a move that shocked many given their known close friendship.
Polling Realities and Political Positioning
Current polling paints a challenging picture for Scottish Labour. A recent YouGov survey placed the party at just 15% support, trailing behind Reform UK at 20% and the SNP at 34%. This represents a dramatic decline for a party that once enjoyed buoyant support across Scotland.
Senior Labour MSPs preparing for the party's upcoming conference in Paisley argue that Sarwar's gambit was strategically astute. They believe it accomplishes two crucial objectives:
- Neutralizing the risk that the SNP and angry voters will turn May's election into a referendum on Starmer's government by echoing elements of that criticism first
- Allowing Sarwar to refocus the campaign on the SNP's competence and track record in government
Mixed Reactions and Political Fallout
While some focus group participants responded positively to Sarwar's leadership credentials, his public criticism of Starmer proved more divisive. Several voters described the move as 'backstabbing' and suggested he had been manipulated into testing support for the prime minister.
Meanwhile, SNP strategists face their own challenges. Despite the turmoil and resignations in Westminster, the party's ratings remain stuck in the 30s. Recent polling suggests the SNP would win the election but with its lowest vote share since 2007, having secured more than 45% at every Holyrood contest since 2011.
Reform UK's Growing Influence
Reform UK's Scottish campaign team reports significant voter disillusionment, though not all disaffected voters are breaking their way. Party representatives argue they are attracting voters less interested in Westminster dramas and more concerned with what they perceive as Holyrood's policy failures.
In this volatile political climate, Labour activists find some comfort in the high number of 2024 Labour supporters who now describe themselves as undecided rather than vehemently aligned with another party. As one focus group participant succinctly noted: 'No one is popular with voters right now.'
The upcoming Scottish Labour conference in Paisley, which will feature a slimmed-down gathering focused squarely on Sarwar's leadership, represents a critical moment for the party as it attempts to regain momentum before the May elections.
