One Nation's Surge in South Australia Serves as a Stark Warning
In the aftermath of the South Australian state election, a profound structural realignment is unfolding across Australian politics. The Liberal party has emerged as the early and obvious casualty, with its vote share dramatically cannibalized by the insurgent One Nation. As ballots continue to be tallied, it is evident that while the Liberal party is not politically deceased, it is currently in a state of profound unaliveness.
Election Results: A Tale of Simple Headlines and Complex Realities
The headline outcome is clear: Peter Malinauskas and the Labor party delivered a decisive blow to the Liberals. However, the underlying narrative is far more intricate. At the time of writing, One Nation's statewide primary vote has surged past 20%, significantly outpacing the Liberal party's tally. The Liberals are projected to secure only between four and seven seats, whereas One Nation is poised to capture at least one electorate, Hammond, with potential gains in MacKillop and Ngadjuri.
This shift is part of a broader trend. The non-major party vote in South Australia reached a record high of 42%, a stark contrast to the approximately 19% recorded in the 2006 election. Nationally, similar patterns are evident, with the latest federal polls indicating a non-major party vote nearing 49%.
Urban Decline and Regional Divergence
The Liberal party's struggles are particularly acute in urban areas. In metropolitan Adelaide, the party managed to hold only the seat of Bragg, located within Christopher Pyne's former federal electorate of Sturt. There is a slim chance of retaining Morphett, but a 20% primary vote swing against the incumbent Liberal sends an unmistakable message: the party is not merely uncompetitive in urban centres; it is entirely absent from the conversation.
This urban decline is a national issue. Following the last federal election, the Liberal party holds just nine out of 88 urban electorates. Even in Queensland, where the Liberal National party secured government in 2024, only two of its 17 seats were in Brisbane. The challenge is compounded by Australia's highly urbanized population, with about half of Queensland's voters enrolled in regional areas, contrasting with the rest of the country.
Voter Discontent and the Rise of Populist Threats
The South Australian election underscores how political discontent is organizing at an accelerated pace. Polling from the RedBridge Group and Accent Research reveals protracted pessimism among voters. In surveys for the Australian Financial Review, 55% of Australians believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. Only 20% think the next generation will have a better life than their parents, while 55% anticipate a worse future.
This frustration and anger with the political status quo are fueling the emergence of disruptors, particularly populist movements like One Nation. The risk for incumbent governments is that voters perceive a lack of meaningful change, driving support toward alternative parties.
Lessons for Labor and the Liberal Party
Labor is not immune to these shifts. In heartland seats such as Mawson, Cheltenham, and Elizabeth, the party has experienced significant vote collapses, with One Nation partially benefiting. In Mawson, Labor faced a double-digit swing against it, with the Liberal vote also declining. One Nation's candidate garnered 26% of the primary vote, cannibalizing support from both major parties. In Elizabeth, Labor's primary vote swung against it by about 15%, the Liberals by 13%, while One Nation enjoyed a 23% swing in its favor, polling at 32%.
The conversion of polling support into actual votes for One Nation creates a permission structure for other voters curious about Pauline Hanson to join the movement, potentially expanding its vote share nationwide.
In the final week of the campaign, Peter Malinauskas—a generational political talent—recognized this risk and intensified his attacks on One Nation. His efforts may have yielded political rewards in seats where soft Labor voters were considering Hanson. In his acceptance speech, the premier addressed One Nation's reductive prescriptions, acknowledging the party's broadening support base built on disillusionment with the status quo.
The Liberal Party's Existential Challenge
The critical question is whether the federal Liberal party will emulate Malinauskas's strategy and confront Hanson and One Nation. While figures like Coalition shadow treasurer Tim Wilson and Nationals leader Matt Canavan might critique One Nation's limited policies, others, such as Liberal senator Alex Antic and segments of the media, could advocate for alignment with Hanson.
The Liberal party is likely to revisit internal and external debates over preference deals with One Nation and how-to-vote cards. In a fragmented electoral landscape, these decisions will have varying consequences for inner suburban, outer suburban, and regional voters. The party now finds itself fighting on three fronts: against Labor, the teal independents, and One Nation.
The greatest risk for the Liberal party is if Hanson demonstrates that One Nation can win seats, proving that a vote for the party is more than a protest. This could break the mental barrier for Liberal voters who have hesitated to switch, fearing a wasted vote.
In politics, failing to recognize one's own weakness is a sign of profound vulnerability. The Liberal party is already grappling with a lack of purpose. If it does not acknowledge its biggest weakness and take on One Nation, it risks fading into irrelevance.
Tony Barry is a former Liberal party strategist who has worked for Christopher Pyne and Malcolm Turnbull. He now runs the political research company RedBridge Group and is a regular media commentator.
