London is poised to record its lowest annual homicide figure in over two decades, with new data revealing a significant and sustained drop in violent deaths, particularly among young people.
A Historic Downward Trend
The latest figures from the Metropolitan Police's homicide dashboard show there were 90 homicides in the 12 months to November 2025. This rolling annual figure has dipped below 100 for the first time in over a decade, marking the lowest level since modern recording methods were introduced in 2003. This decline is especially notable given that London's population has grown by more than 20% since the early 2000s, when the city saw around 200 murders a year.
This positive trend led the Mayor of London's office to issue a press release in September 2025, declaring the capital had seen its fewest homicides since monthly records began. The data confirms this early optimism was well-founded, with the year-end tally set to solidify the downward trajectory.
The Sharp Fall in Knife Deaths
A primary driver behind the falling homicide rate is a dramatic reduction in knife-related deaths. The 12-month rolling figure for fatal stabbings fell below 60 this summer, a stark contrast to its peak of 109 in March 2018. Analysis indicates this steep fall is largely attributable to fewer victims aged under 25.
This trend is supported by NHS data, which shows a concurrent and significant drop in the number of people admitted to London hospitals following assaults with a sharp object. While hundreds of such admissions still occur annually, current levels are substantially lower than those recorded seven years ago.
Campaigners and community leaders point to a multi-faceted approach for this progress. Pastor Lorraine Jones Burrell MBE, who founded the Dwayne Simpson Foundation after her son was stabbed in Brixton in 2014, told MyLondon that "efforts at every level" are yielding results. She highlighted sustained investment from Mayor Sadiq Khan's office into grassroots projects, alongside interventions from celebrities and community organisations offering direct support and mentoring to young people.
Law Changes and a Public Health Approach
Legislative changes are also cited as a contributing factor. In September 2024, a ban on selling zombie-style knives and machetes came into force, following a national surrender scheme. Further government proposals include creating a new offence of possession with intent to use unlawful violence, carrying a maximum four-year sentence, and increasing penalties for selling illegal weapons to minors.
These measures form part of a broader strategy. Since 2019, London has adopted a public health approach to violence reduction, modelled on the successful Glasgow Violence Reduction Unit established in 2005. This method coordinates action across the NHS, schools, and social services to tackle the root causes of crime.
Police tactics have also evolved. The use of Section 60 orders, which allow stop and search without suspicion in a designated area for 24 hours, increased by nearly 10% in the year to March 2025. While police leaders insist the tactic is effective, critics highlight a cost: Black people were five times more likely than white people to be stopped under a S60 order in the same period.
Met Police Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley has acknowledged the disproportionate impact of violence on Black communities, noting that a young Black man in London is "13 times more likely to be murdered than a young white man" over the past decade. He advocates for a "deep, serious commitment across multiple agencies" to address this crisis.
A Cautious Outlook for the Future
Despite the encouraging data, experts warn against complacency. Patrick Green, CEO of the Ben Kinsella Trust, emphasised that "this is not the time for complacency" and called for continued investment in education, youth engagement, and community prevention.
Historical precedent provides a note of caution. The last time homicide figures dropped below 100, in 2012 and 2014, they were followed by a sharp rise, which some attributed to cuts in public services and the expansion of County Lines drug operations. The challenge now is to ensure the current decline is not a temporary dip but the start of a lasting change.
The obvious conclusion from the past 12 months is that London has been less deadly, but knife crime remains a serious problem. The coming year will be crucial in determining whether this positive trend can be sustained and accelerated.
