Labour's Unprecedented Crisis and the Need for Change
Led by a prime minister likely doomed, presiding over a struggling economy, exposed by ongoing scandals, and besieged by populist insurgents on both the right and left, Labour finds itself in an unprecedented crisis. According to Electoral Calculus, the party is predicted to win just 75 seats at the next general election. To escape this dire situation, Labour must undertake unprecedented actions, including making its political approach both narrower and more expansive.
Abandoning Ambiguity for Clarity
One key shift involves abandoning the failed attempt by Keir Starmer's government to simultaneously appeal to voters on the authoritarian right and the liberal left. For instance, launching harsh immigration policies while advocating for a multicultural society has proven ineffective. In the past, when most voters chose between Labour and the Tories, political ambiguity was necessary to build broad coalitions. However, with today's electorate much more fragmented and divided, ambiguous messages often come across as incoherent and inauthentic, common criticisms of the Starmer government.
Broad coalitions are becoming less essential. With five or six parties in contention nationwide, any party attracting as little as 25% of the electorate could secure many parliamentary seats if support is efficiently distributed. For Labour, this means embracing a more clearly left-of-centre identity again.
Reconnecting with Progressive Voters
A new report by the non-partisan analysts Persuasion UK highlights that Labour's loss of support to the Greens, Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru, and the SNP is both larger and more reversible than its loss to Reform UK. The report finds that about 10% of the electorate is open to either returning or switching to Labour from other progressive parties. Securing a substantial portion of this 10% could determine whether Labour wins the next election or faces a rout.
Expanding Through Alliances
To achieve a second term in office, Labour must also become more expansive by forming alliances with other parties. Lib Dem leader Ed Davey has not ruled out a coalition with Labour, which could help the Lib Dems recover from their disastrous involvement in David Cameron's rightwing government and re-establish their identity as a genuine centre party. Meanwhile, Green leader Zack Polanski has expressed potential to work with Labour to stop Reform and engage in discussions about proportional representation, a wealth tax, and climate action. However, Polanski has conditioned such collaboration on replacing Keir Starmer with Andy Burnham as Labour leader, a change easier to advocate than arrange.
Burnham already has cross-party credentials from working with Lib Dems on the Greater Manchester combined authority. Labour has a history of collaboration, such as the Lib-Lab pact during Jim Callaghan's premiership, though that was almost half a century ago and lasted barely a year. Most senior Labour figures, apart from Burnham, have long believed their party has a rightful monopoly on British left-of-centre politics, despite some rightwing policies.
Overcoming Tribalism and Top-Down Issues
Labour activists often exhibit tribalism, bred from cold days spent leafleting and door-knocking. The current Labour machine is particularly aggressive towards leftwing rivals, portraying the Greens as extremists focused on legalising hard drugs and undermining Nato. In turn, Polanski has stated his party aims to "replace" Labour. Any coalition talks would require replacing mutual contempt with trust.
Another necessary shift is for Labour to become less top-down. Even in strongholds like London, the party is rapidly shedding members, with remaining activists disillusioned by curtailed debates on issues like Gaza and ignored on-the-ground intelligence. When Labour was popular, activist discontent might not have mattered much, but those confident days are over. At the next general election, Labour will need every activist it can get.
A New Political Game
Activists should also recognize that while Labour is in deep trouble, so are the Tories. Reform UK is losing winnable byelections and slipping in the polls, the Lib Dems have failed to break through in favourable circumstances, and the Greens face a leader who is now a media target. In the likely three-year gap until the next election, all parties will experience disasters and opportunities.
In truly multiparty systems, as seen in many European countries, no party can claim to represent the whole nation or dominate the political field. Whether under Starmer or another leader, Labour must realize it's playing a new game and adapt accordingly to secure victory.
