Something remarkable is unfolding within the British political landscape. As the nation contends with a perceived generation of underwhelming leaders, the steady ascent of Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch in opinion polls is capturing significant attention. Political commentator George Trefgarne posits that Badenoch could become Prime Minister as soon as 2028, marking a potentially unprecedented shift in Western democracy.
The Polls Are Moving: Evidence of a Shift
Recent polling data provides concrete evidence of this changing tide. A survey by More In Common indicates that the combined total of definite Conservative voters and those considering it now surpasses support for all other parties, including Reform UK. Furthermore, a YouGov poll shows Badenoch's personal ratings recovering from a low base. She is now the preferred choice for Prime Minister against all contenders except Sir Keir Starmer, whose own ratings are declining.
This potential rise would be historic. Unlike Barack Obama, who was raised in stable Honolulu, Badenoch's early life was marked by dislocation. Born in Lagos, Nigeria, in 1980, her family's stability was upended by the country's economic collapse. She attended nine schools before the age of 16 and moved to Britain at 16, where she forged her path through sheer determination. She earned a master's in systems engineering, an NVQ in computer science, and a law degree from Birkbeck College while working, embodying a self-improving spirit often compared to Margaret Thatcher.
The Badenoch Formula: Character, Policy, and Public Appeal
Trefgarne argues that Badenoch possesses critical personal talents under the banner of character. He highlights her honesty, stamina, and intelligence, noting she is not a product of the Westminster 'special adviser' machine. Her instincts on institutions, markets, and culture, combined with her role as a mother of three, are seen as grounding forces that connect her to quotidian life.
Her political skills are visibly developing. With coaching from David Cameron, she has gained ascendancy at Prime Minister's Questions, employing wit and rhetoric. Her party conference speech laid out a clear policy direction, promising to exit the Net Zero energy policy, achieve welfare savings, and abolish stamp duty and business rates for small businesses.
A recent policy announcement to introduce age restrictions on social media for under-16s demonstrated growing public traction. When Sky News' Sophie Ridge asked for viewer feedback, not a single response opposed the idea, aligning with what Badenoch termed "common sense."
Context and Challenges: Labour's Struggles and Tory Legacy
Badenoch has also benefited from circumstance. The Labour government, in power since the last election, is perceived to have broken key pledges on taxes, growth, and ending chaos swiftly, appearing divided and incompetent. Furthermore, a paradox has emerged: each defection from the Conservatives to Reform UK seems to improve Badenoch's popularity. Figures like Nadhim Zahawi leaving for Reform remind voters that the party is becoming a repository for the factions associated with the recent turbulent past, allowing Badenoch to position herself as the break from that era.
She is not without weaknesses. Her record as Business Secretary was unimpressive, she can be abrasive, and assembling a strong team remains a work in progress. Her greatest challenge may be leading the Conservative Party itself, an organisation burdened by a recent legacy of factionalism and perceived incompetence. The upcoming local elections in May 2026 remain a significant test, with Reform UK poised to perform well.
Trefgarne concludes by invoking philosopher Harry Frankfurt's concept of 'bullshit'—a disregard for truth more dangerous than lying. He suggests Britain has lived in an 'Age of Bullshit' since the Iraq War, exemplified by Boris Johnson and continued by figures like Rachel Reeves. In Kemi Badenoch, he argues, the country may have found an antidote. A bandwagon is beginning to roll, and if she survives the May elections, her direction offers a more hopeful prospect than any other currently on the British political horizon.
