Poll: Voters Believe Defections Strengthen Reform UK and Weaken Conservatives
Fresh polling data indicates that British voters perceive the recent wave of political defections from the Conservative Party to Reform UK as significantly benefiting Nigel Farage's party while damaging Tory election prospects. The comprehensive survey reveals a clear public consensus that these high-profile departures are reshaping the political landscape ahead of the next general election.
Public Perception Favours Reform UK Following Defections
The latest City AM/Freshwater Strategy poll of UK voters demonstrates that 44 per cent of respondents believe the recent defections will substantially increase Reform UK's chances at the forthcoming general election. This contrasts sharply with just 14 per cent who suggested the moves would damage Reform's electoral prospects. The findings suggest voters view the influx of former Conservative MPs as lending credibility and momentum to Reform UK's campaign efforts.
Meanwhile, more than a third of voters (37 per cent) expressed the view that these defections will actively hinder the Conservative Party's chances at elections rather than help them. This perception persists despite the Tories having gained some ground against Reform in recent national voting intention polling, indicating that defections may be creating longer-term structural problems for the Conservative brand.
Badenoch's Leadership Under Scrutiny Amid Defection Crisis
The polling reveals significant public scepticism about Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch's handling of the defection crisis. A majority of respondents (54 per cent) in the nationally representative survey stated that Badenoch had not performed well in her response to the damaging series of departures from her party. This criticism extends even within Conservative ranks, with nearly a third of Tory voters (31 per cent) sharing the view that their leader struggled to respond effectively to the defections.
These findings represent a notable setback for Badenoch, whose approval ratings took a hit during January according to the same polling. The data shows she has become less favourable with the public than Reform UK's Nigel Farage, despite Tory strategists previously believing she had enjoyed rising support in recent months following strong Prime Minister's Questions performances and impactful speeches on economic and foreign policy matters.
Defection Details and Their Political Impact
The survey comes amid a significant reshuffling of political allegiances, with several prominent Conservative figures having recently joined Reform UK. Former immigration minister Robert Jenrick formally announced his defection last month after being sacked from Badenoch's shadow cabinet, taking aim at key Tory frontbenchers including shadow chancellor Mel Stride and shadow foreign secretary Priti Patel.
Jenrick stated: "The fact is the Tory party is so compromised it cannot speak for the country and oppose Labour's madness. I can't kid myself any more. The party hasn't changed and it won't. The bulk of the party don't get it, and don't have the stomach for the radical change this country needs."
Other significant defectors include former home secretary Suella Braverman, who now sits with Reform in the House of Commons, alongside Andrew Rosindell, former vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi, and notable former Tory MPs Danny Kruger and Lee Anderson. This substantial migration of political talent represents one of the most significant realignments in recent British political history.
Shifting Attitudes Toward Potential Conservative-Reform Merger
The polling also reveals changing public attitudes toward a potential merger between Reform UK and the Conservative Party. Support for such a union has declined significantly since June 2025, with just 21 per cent of Britons now supporting a merger compared to 33 per cent last year. Conservative voters have also become less likely to support a pact compared to seven months ago, suggesting growing polarisation between the two right-leaning parties.
This diminishing enthusiasm for political consolidation on the right presents additional challenges for Conservative strategists seeking to consolidate the anti-Labour vote ahead of the next election. The data suggests Reform UK is successfully establishing itself as a distinct political force rather than merely a protest vehicle for disaffected Conservatives.
Methodological note: Freshwater Strategy interviewed 1,250 eligible voters in the UK, aged 18 and above, through online surveys conducted between 30 January and 1 February 2026. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 per cent. Data are weighted to be representative of UK voters. Freshwater Strategy are members of the British Polling Council and abide by their rules.
