Political leaders across Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales are preparing for the potential breakup of the United Kingdom if Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, wins the next general election or becomes a strong opposition force. Unionists and nationalists alike are bracing for constitutional turmoil, fearing a Farage-led government could trigger a rushed referendum on Irish unification and implement Trump-style anti-immigration policies that alienate the Celtic nations.
Warnings from Former Welsh First Minister
Mark Drakeford, former first minister of Wales, warned that a Farage government could lead to a situation where “people on the island of Ireland will be looking across the Irish Sea to a country where ICE-like snatch squads are arresting people off the streets,” referring to the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency. Speaking at a conference in Belfast organized by the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), Drakeford said English nationalism risked pushing out Scotland and Northern Ireland, leaving Wales as a “progressive pimple” in a rump UK. He emphasized that the UK is a “voluntary association of four nations” and that choices must be available for nations to leave.
Irish Leaders Call for Preparation
Ireland’s justice minister, Jim O’Callaghan, stated that Dublin should begin preparing for unification rather than waiting for English nationalism to set the timetable. “The future may not go down the predictable pathway of discussions and harmony,” he said. Irish leaders believe the UK’s annual subvention for Northern Ireland, estimated between £6 billion and £20 billion, could become a rallying cry for Farage, similar to the Brexit-era claim that the EU cost Britain £350 million every week. SDLP leader Claire Hanna remarked, “Wait till he sees our bill,” and noted that “Brexit was a lesson in how not to do constitutional change.” She added that the Nigel Farage phenomenon is now a “feature of UK politics,” making it prudent for the nations to think about their constitutional future.
Sinn Féin Urges Groundwork
Conor Murphy, a former Sinn Féin finance minister at Stormont and now an Irish senator, estimated the subvention for Northern Ireland is lower than £6 billion but said Farage could weaponize the £20 billion estimate. “He could say: ‘We’re going to save that by letting the Irish go and good luck to you and goodbye,’” Murphy said, describing Farage’s policies as “Trump-like” and unpredictable. He urged Dublin to engage with UK counterparts “while there might be someone sensible in Whitehall” to clarify the terms and conditions of a referendum, ensuring they are “insulated from whatever chaos might arise.”
Fine Gael and Varadkar Weigh In
Fine Gael, part of Ireland’s ruling coalition, plans to publish a blueprint for a unified Ireland at its annual conference in November. Former taoiseach Leo Varadkar said he does not think a Farage-led government is likely, but if it happens, Ireland could be “bounced” into a border poll. He noted that an “accelerator could be a UK government led by Reform that doubles down on Brexit” and looks for a harder separation from the EU, reopening questions around the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). Farage has said he wishes to leave the ECHR and renegotiate the Good Friday Agreement to stop small boat crossings.
Support for ECHR Removal in Northern Ireland
A survey by Queen’s University Belfast professors Katy Hayward and David Phinnemore found support for removal of the ECHR is higher in Northern Ireland (36%) than in the wider UK (29%). Among Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) voters, support rises to 77%, and among Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) voters, it reaches 93%. Elements of loyalism found common cause with the English far right during race riots in Belfast last month.
Unionist Concerns and Arguments
Jon Burrows, leader of Northern Ireland’s Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), expressed concern that Farage’s English nationalism “might galvanise” nationalism in Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales, creating “more fertile ground for those who want to tear apart the United Kingdom.” He argued that unionists must promote the economic and national security advantages of the UK, noting that control of seas and underwater cables is vital to national security. “Behind the scenes the security services would be concerned about Northern Ireland leaving the UK,” he said, adding that Northern Ireland has 3% of the UK’s population but produces 10% of its food.
Scottish National Party Perspective
Stephen Gethin, a Scottish National Party MSP, told the conference he was struck by the lack of engagement in England regarding the UK’s constitutional future. “How do we bring England and English people into this conversation? Because they’re an important part of our shared islands,” he said.
Drakeford’s Worst-Case Scenario
Drakeford expressed hope the UK would endure but said Wales could associate with Ireland and Scotland in a new Celtic union modelled on the Nordic Council if the UK breaks up. He warned that the first-past-the-post election system means Reform could win a government with a big majority on just 34% of the vote. In that scenario, Wales might find the “United Kingdom has changed so radically that its component parts may find they will be better off elsewhere,” leading to “the worst of all possible outcomes – not one in which the people of Wales choose to leave the United Kingdom, but in which the United Kingdom has left Wales.”
