Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham are reportedly again contesting Labour’s future, with Burnham’s team quietly preparing a manifesto and identifying seats where MPs could step aside to allow a Westminster run.
Burnham’s Westminster Return Plan
Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham has a plan to return to Westminster ‘within weeks’, allies say. While Westminster focused on committee rooms and voting lobbies, Starmer’s political future was being decided elsewhere. Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner were buttering up Labour MPs in the Strangers’ Bar, as colleagues spoke of their “existential” fear about crucial elections next week. Starmer tried to calm backbenchers’ nerves, but one former minister said several MPs refused to meet the leader, stating: “We don’t want to be seen with him.”
Burnham’s Manifesto and Seats
Burnham, 800 miles away in Madrid, has been quietly preparing his manifesto. Those close to the mayor said he would launch an explicit programme for government when he fights his eventual parliamentary byelection campaign, with several possible seats identified in Greater Manchester and Merseyside. Pledges would include sweeping reforms to the electoral system, backing proportional representation across the UK, a decade-long vision to transform local services, higher defence spending, and an overhaul of inheritance tax to pay for Britain’s social care system.
Sources close to Burnham told the Guardian he had identified more than one seat that could become available soon after the 7 May elections, and that an “impressive” candidate was lined up to replace him as Labour’s Greater Manchester mayor. It is understood this candidate is not a sitting MP but has the pedigree to win against Reform UK. Bev Craig, leader of Manchester city council, is tipped for the candidacy and is understood not to have ruled herself out.
Starmer’s Resistance and Labour MPs’ Support
Starmer’s team suggested any attempted Westminster return would be fiercely resisted. Those close to the prime minister said the prospect of losing the mayoralty is a risk not worth taking, though changes to the electoral system in the forthcoming elections bill could give Labour a better chance against Reform. Members of Labour’s national executive committee, which blocked Burnham from standing in February’s Gorton and Denton byelection, said there was no route for the mayor through that committee.
Some Burnham allies have been attempting to convince union general secretaries to change their views, with Unison a key target. Others, like GMB, have ruled out supporting Burnham due to his closeness with Ed Miliband. “It would only happen if Keir effectively gave up and said: ‘OK, we’ll let Andy in so I can step down,’” one source said. The chances of that happening, according to those close to Starmer, is close to zero.
Growing Disillusionment
Yet a growing number of Labour MPs believe this position is unsustainable after a fortnight of damaging headlines over Peter Mandelson and the battering many expect in elections across England, Wales, and Scotland next week. Projections from elections expert Robert Hayward indicate Labour is expected to lose more than 1,600 seats across England, as well as bruising defeats in Wales and Scotland. Several MPs involved in persuading their colleagues believe, with the right numbers, Burnham would be in place by the autumn.
Some have raised the possibility of Burnham appointing Starmer as foreign secretary to demonstrate consensus, though this is highly unlikely given Starmer’s anger. “It would allow him to build on his legacy on Iran, on Ukraine, Europe,” one supportive MP said. The plan, said to have support from some cabinet ministers, would involve issuing a statement calling for Starmer to prepare for an orderly departure. MPs expect at least 100 MPs to endorse that after 8 May.
Existential Crisis
Several Labour MPs said the mood had turned “existential” since the Guardian revealed Mandelson had failed security vetting after being appointed as ambassador to the US, prompting the sacking of Olly Robbins and two weeks of damaging headlines. “Before you broke that story, people were saying it would be difficult for Burnham to come back and that Keir would have until at least Christmas. But that story was the straw that broke the camel’s back,” one MP said. They added: “It feels unanimous now that Burnham is the only game in town with the ability to save their seats, even among people you might have thought would be aligned to other candidates.”
There is significant support for Burnham growing among new intake MPs and the centrist wing of the party. “We’ve spent the last nine months trying to see if something else works – including Keir – and it doesn’t,” said one frontbencher. “This is it – this is the plan. No other plan comes close.” The soft-left Tribune group of MPs is expected to set out its own call for a change in direction post-May elections, but MPs coordinating the statement demanding an orderly transition say this is a separate endeavour reaching all wings of the party.
MPs said Burnham had been making considerable effort to meet new MPs, campaigning in London alongside ministers such as Ellie Reeves and Miatta Fahnbulleh. More sceptical MPs include the old guard who served with Burnham in government. Nine years after leaving Westminster, having served in the cabinets of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, Burnham could be on the brink of a dramatic return. His team said it was now a matter of “political will” among MPs to bring him back.
