The First Ministers of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland will sign a landmark agreement on Monday to pressure Downing Street to hold referendums on independence. The meeting in Cardiff brings together SNP leader John Swinney, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth and Sinn Féin vice president Michelle O’Neill, who will sign a memorandum of understanding pushing for referendums in their respective countries.
Swinney went as far as suggesting that Prime Minister Andy Burnham is ‘facing up to the idea that he will go down in history as the final prime minister of the United Kingdom’.
Summit details and political context
The meeting is taking place as party leaders, not as officials of their respective governments. Northern Ireland’s deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly of the DUP has already said Ms O’Neill has ‘not sought any agreement or permission from me to travel, attend or sign anything as First Minister’.
UK governments have been consistently against the holding of referendums on separation since the 2014 vote in Scotland. Prime Minister Andy Burnham told the Commons another vote in Scotland could be held if there was a ‘clear consensus’ north of the border for it, but a letter sent to Mr Swinney later clarified a referendum remained ‘off limits’.
Border poll and Irish unity
The issue of a border poll in Ireland has been thrust into the spotlight following weekend comments from Donald Trump in support of Irish unity. A Sinn Féin source told the Press Association the Cardiff summit will be about ‘where the parties can work together to make a difference to people’s lives; and how each of our nations has the right to shape its own future through democratic means, guided by the will of its people’.
The source added: ‘In Ireland, the constitutional future belongs to the people of this island. The Good Friday Agreement gives us the democratic means to decide it, and now is the time to prepare seriously for that choice. Irish unity is not a distant aspiration. The work of building the new Ireland must begin now.’
Welsh and Scottish positions
Speaking on the BBC’s Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg, Welsh First Minister Mr ap Iorwerth said: ‘We’re talking about how we can work together, let’s talk about what we have in common and what we don’t.’ He added: ‘There’s also something that ties us together, isn’t there? That pursuit of a different attitude from the UK Government. It could be around the constitutional question; it could, more acutely, be around fair funding, making sure resources are shared in a way that is equitable, that feels fair, that we have the powers to build the future for the people that we represent.’
The meeting also comes after Scotland’s Education Secretary said another referendum was ‘not off the table’. Speaking on the BBC’s Sunday Show, Scottish Education Secretary Mairi McAllan said: ‘An independence referendum is not off the table. We devote time to it because it is the transformational change that allows Scotland to stand on its own two feet in the world and to fulsomely pursue the better that we want.’
‘The status quo in the UK is unsustainable’, Ms McAllan added, pointing to the First Ministers of both Northern Ireland and Wales being in support of leaving the UK. ‘The only people who, until last week anyway, didn’t appear to understand that were the UK Government. But the Prime Minister stood at the despatch box in the House of Commons last week and was clear that Scotland must have a route to choose our own future, so we just want that agreed now in a legal format so that we can take forward our mandate in Scotland.’
The Cardiff summit is expected to produce a joint statement reinforcing the leaders’ shared commitment to self-determination, with the memorandum of understanding serving as a framework for future cooperation on constitutional matters.
