Australia Urged to Set Immigration Targets for Stable Temporary Population
A new report from Australian experts calls for the establishment of immigration targets specifically designed to achieve a stable temporary population, addressing the rapid growth of nonpermanent residents that has strained public services and housing across the country. The authors emphasize that the focus should shift from net overseas migration figures to better governance of temporary migration.
Rising Temporary Migrant Share
Over the past 15 years, the proportion of temporary migrants in Australia's total population has more than doubled, increasing from 2.7% in 2010 to over 6% today. This surge has contributed to significant pressures on infrastructure and social cohesion, according to the report by Alan Gamlen, director of the Australian National University's migration hub, and emeritus professor Peter McDonald.
Gamlen stated that the failure to manage the stock of temporary migrants in recent decades has fueled concerns around mass migration and its impact on housing affordability and public resources. He argued that Australia's preoccupation with net migration numbers has distracted from a more meaningful discussion on the scale of temporariness.
Learning from International Examples
The report draws comparisons with Canada, which implemented a radical migration reset in late 2024, including a cap on temporary arrivals to reduce their share from 7.6% to 5% of the population. This policy has led to Canada's population shrinking for the first time since the 1940s, with evidence suggesting it has alleviated pressure on housing costs.
However, Gamlen cautioned against Australia adopting a similar kneejerk response. He praised Canada for focusing on the stock of temporary migrants rather than net migration, calling it the right policy target, but criticized the arbitrary 5% goal and the rapid cuts that caused economic harm.
Proposed Policy Framework
Gamlen and McDonald propose that Australia should set a specific number for temporary migrants and link it to the country's capacity to support permanent settlement through infrastructure development. This approach aims to prevent the unintended consequences of a metastasized guest worker population.
Our argument is not that migration should simply be cut, it is that Australia needs a better way to govern temporariness, the authors said. Our goal is a stable temporary population. The question is not what net overseas migration number sounds politically attractive. The question is what scale of temporariness Australia is willing and able to sustain.
The debate comes amid a rebound in overseas migration post-pandemic, triggering similar discussions in other advanced economies about accommodating rapid population increases. The report underscores the need for a strategic shift in immigration policy to balance economic benefits with social and infrastructural sustainability.
