The political future of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will be decided by crucial elections this May, according to a leading polling expert. Conservative peer Lord Robert Hayward has warned that the Labour Party is heading for a bruising series of results that could determine the leadership of both Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves.
A Decisive Test for Labour's Leadership
Lord Hayward stated that while the political landscape has shifted, the May 7 elections remain pivotal for Sir Keir Starmer. "A few months ago it looked as if May 7 would be decisive for the leaderships of both Labour and Conservatives," he said. "As we move into 2026 it now looks as if the May elections could decide the fate of Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves."
He contrasted this with the position of Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, whose fate appears less clearly tied to the upcoming local and devolved parliament votes.
Projected Losses Across the Board
The expert forecasts severe difficulties for Labour across multiple fronts. He anticipates steep losses in English local council elections, defeats in the Welsh Senedd, and what he described as a "battering" in the Scottish Parliament.
These predictions follow a dramatic collapse in Labour's polling fortunes. The latest City AM/Freshwater survey recorded Sir Keir Starmer's approval rating at a historic low of -47. This marks a further decline from a previous record low of -45 and leaves him trailing behind both Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and Reform UK's Nigel Farage.
The political pressure is being applied from both sides of the spectrum:
- Reform UK is drawing votes from the right.
- The Green Party, under new leader Zak Polanski, is surging and attracting support from the left.
Controversy and Delay Cloud the Electoral Landscape
The election process itself is mired in uncertainty. A significant number of councils are likely to defer their local polls until 2027 due to an overhaul of local government infrastructure. This potential delay has sparked a major backlash.
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey has written to the human rights watchdog, calling for an investigation into what he termed the "government's cavalier approach to our elections." Reform UK's Zia Yusuf told the BBC his party would attempt to stage a parliamentary vote in protest against the "extremely dangerous" delays.
Despite these changes, elections in London and other metropolitan areas are expected to proceed. Lord Hayward highlighted that these traditional Labour strongholds will be critical battlegrounds. He warned of "very, very large losses" to the Greens, Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats, and pro-Gaza independent candidates, particularly in the capital.
A major electoral setback is expected to trigger intense speculation about Starmer's longevity as Prime Minister. This follows months of internal tension, including rogue Downing Street briefings against Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who is seen as a leading contender to replace Starmer should he fall.
