Voters are heading to the ballot box in a key Victorian byelection on the Mornington Peninsula, widely seen as a preview of what to expect when the rest of the state goes to the polls in November. The Liberal candidate, Anthony Marsh, has been tipped by the ABC's election analyst Casey Briggs as the favourite to win Saturday's election for the seat of Nepean.
Marsh's Own Vote Not Guaranteed
However, Marsh cannot count on one vote: his own. The Nepean electorate includes part of Mount Martha, the suburb where Marsh lives, but does not include his actual address. Despite this, Marsh remained confident. "People don't care where my street sign is – I've been the mayor of this electorate three times over the past five years," he said on Saturday. "I show up every day to work for this community."
Main Contenders: One Nation and Independent
With Labor opting not to field a candidate in the byelection, One Nation's Darren Hercus and independent Tracee Hutchison are considered the other main contenders. After casting his vote, Hercus described the race as tight, noting a mixed response from voters fed up with empty promises. "We've had a few Liberal voters come over to us for frustrations they've been feeling with their own party," he said. "I think that people want change. The two-party government system has let a lot of people down."
The One Nation leader, Pauline Hanson, who campaigned alongside Hercus, was absent on polling day. "People will vote for her rather than me. She's incredible … she just keeps going," Hercus said.
Independent Candidate's Appeal
After casting her vote, Hutchison said the area had been overlooked and let down by the major parties for decades. "I am a very proud Rosebud girl," she told reporters. "I am putting myself forward as someone who is of this place, who cares deeply about this place." With no Labor candidate, Hutchison said many voters were looking for an alternative, and she would represent and unify both sides of politics.
Byelection Context and Implications
Saturday's byelection was triggered by the sudden resignation of Victorian Liberal deputy leader Sam Groth. The party has held the seat since its inception, except for four years when it fell to Labor. A strong One Nation showing could back up national polling and the South Australian election result, and bode poorly for the Liberals in the November Victorian election, said Benjamin Moffitt, a senior politics lecturer at Monash University. "If they even do somewhat well in Nepean, that's a real problem for the Liberal party," Moffitt said.
Liberal Campaign Focus
Victoria's opposition leader, Jess Wilson, handed out how-to-vote cards alongside Marsh and acknowledged the byelection's importance for her prospects of becoming the next premier. "We don't take anything for granted," Wilson said. "We're the only party down here who are running on a plan to deliver the Rosebud hospital, to fix the roads, to put more cops on the beat down here."
Electorate Demographics and Key Issues
The electorate takes in wealthy postcodes like Sorrento, Portsea, and Flinders, as well as low socioeconomic areas such as Capel Sound, formerly known as Rosebud West. The Mornington Peninsula is officially part of metropolitan Melbourne but lacks comparable services. Public transport and a planned revamp of Rosebud hospital are among key issues for locals.
