Myanmar's military rulers are preparing to hold a general election this Sunday, the first since they seized power in a coup in 2021. However, with the former leader imprisoned, the main opposition party dissolved, and roughly a third of the country excluded from the vote, the process has been widely condemned as a sham designed solely to legitimise the junta's grip on power.
A Vote Designed for Legitimacy, Not Democracy
Analysts and pro-democracy activists assert that the 28 December poll is a tactical move by the generals, not a step toward restoring civilian rule. The military has rejected all international criticism, with junta spokesperson Zaw Min Tun stating the election is for the people of Myanmar, not to satisfy the global community. "Whether the international community is satisfied or not, is irrelevant," he said.
This stance comes as Western governments and the United Nations dismiss the vote. In stark contrast, China, the junta's most crucial ally, is backing the election. Beijing, which has provided vital support to help the military regain battlefield momentum, views the poll as Myanmar's best path back to stability.
An Atmosphere of Fear and Exclusion
The run-up to the election has been marked by intense repression. A new election protection law mandates a minimum three-year prison sentence, or even the death penalty, for criticising the vote. Since July, over 200 people have been arrested, including for simply liking social media posts deemed critical.
On the ballot, 57 parties will appear, but most are perceived as linked to the military. Only six are running nationwide, with the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party effectively uncontested in dozens of constituencies. Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD), which won a landslide in 2020, was dissolved after refusing to register with the junta's election commission.
The geographical scope of the election starkly illustrates the junta's diminished control. Voting has been cancelled in 56 of 330 townships and an additional 3,000 wards and village tracts. Analysts estimate this excludes about one-third of the country, primarily areas engulfed in fighting or under opposition control.
Conflict Rages as Polls Approach
The military's attempt to present a facade of normalcy occurs against a backdrop of escalating violence. Data from conflict monitor Acled shows that from 1 January to 28 November 2025, military air and drone strikes increased by approximately 30% compared to 2024. Civilian infrastructure, including schools and hospitals, has been routinely targeted.
In a desperate bid to bolster its forces, the junta has intensified conscription, with abductions for forced service rising by 26%. This has spurred an exodus of young people from cities like Yangon. Meanwhile, on the battlefield, support from China has been pivotal. By cutting off cross-border supplies to powerful ethnic armed groups in northern Shan state, Beijing enabled the military to reclaim territory and redirect its forces.
Richard Horsey, senior Myanmar adviser at the Crisis Group, suggests the military may seek tactical ceasefires after the election, not for peace, but to regroup and attack elsewhere. "They are determined to continue pressing their advantage and clawing back as much of the territory that they’ve lost since the coup as possible," Horsey said. For the people of Myanmar, Sunday's vote offers not hope, but a grim consolidation of military rule.
