Trump Relied on Unverified Intelligence to Blame Iran for Deadly School Strike
Donald Trump's attempt to attribute responsibility for a deadly strike on an elementary school to Iran was based on an early US intelligence assessment that was almost immediately dismissed, according to exclusive sources familiar with the matter. This revelation highlights significant lapses in intelligence handling and presidential briefings during a critical incident.
Initial CIA Assessment and Swift Correction
The CIA initially informed President Trump that the missile used in the strike, which targeted a school in Minab, Iran, was not believed to be a US munition. Analysts noted that the fins appeared positioned too low for it to be a Tomahawk cruise missile, a weapon used exclusively by the US and a few allies like the UK, Japan, and Australia. However, within 24 hours, this assessment was proven incorrect after additional video footage from different angles clearly showed the missile was, in fact, a Tomahawk.
Despite this rapid correction, Trump had already settled on blaming Iran before discussing it with reporters on Air Force One last Saturday. At that time, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth adopted a more cautious stance, stating only that the matter was under investigation. Trump reiterated his position at a news conference the following day, acknowledging the missile was a Tomahawk but suggesting it belonged to Iran, a claim unsupported by the updated intelligence.
Criticism from Former Intelligence Officials
Former intelligence officials have criticized both Trump and the briefers for the mishandling of preliminary information. One former CIA officer, speaking anonymously, emphasized the dangers of providing unverified data to the president, noting that it can lead to public embarrassment and difficulties in correcting the record later. "If the principal asks you a question, the best thing to say is you don't know, knowing how hard it is to go back later to correct the record," the officer stated.
Ongoing Pentagon Investigation and Casualties
The Pentagon's ongoing investigation into the strike has reached similar conclusions, finding that the missile was a Tomahawk fired by the US military, which relied on outdated intelligence. The strike is believed to have killed at least 175 people, many of them children, making it one of the deadliest targeting errors in recent decades. The investigation is focused on why the intelligence was outdated and whether proper verification procedures were followed.
In a statement, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said, "This investigation is ongoing. As we have said, unlike the terrorist Iranian regime, the United States does not target civilians." A CIA spokesperson did not respond to requests for comment.
Background on the Target and Intelligence Processes
The school in Minab was located on the same block as an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy base. Historically, the school building was part of the military compound but was walled off and converted into a school between 2013 and 2016. Targets for airstrikes are typically identified by the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, which use satellite imagery to build "target databases" in systems like Maven Smart System.
According to a former senior defense official, designating a building as a target involves specialized analysts and multiple layers of oversight, often years in advance. Once entered into the database, a target may not be reviewed again until a strike is considered. Military planners can generate target lists from these databases, utilizing artificial intelligence tools such as Claude, Anthropic's large language model, to prioritize metrics like distance or destruction probability.
For the initial phase of the Iran war, the list of potential targets numbered in the thousands. It remains unclear whether each target was verified before strikes were executed, raising further questions about the robustness of pre-strike intelligence checks.
