A wave of temporary relief, and even some jubilation, swept through Iran as Donald Trump announced he was postponing a planned attack on the country's energy infrastructure. The former US president claimed to have had productive conversations with Tehran, but Iran promptly denied any direct or indirect discussions with him or his intermediaries.
Diplomatic Efforts and Ongoing Threats
Despite the denial, the diplomatic track was not entirely silent. Turkey, through its foreign minister Hakan Fidan, and Oman, via foreign minister Badr Albusaidi, have been actively working the phones. Both nations are respected in Tehran and Washington, serving as potential bridges in the tense standoff.
However, as is often the case with Trump, the threat that this is only Armageddon postponed leaves Iranians living on edge, at least for the rest of the week. This situation strengthens voices within Iran who argue that Trump's threat to cripple Iran's power supplies was merely a distraction from his main strategic goal: capturing the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
Fear and Defiance in Tehran
The threat to Iran's power supplies had been met with a mixture of defiance, anger, and understandable fear. Iranians contemplated the possibility of extended power outages, making last-minute appeals for the international community to urge Trump to hold back from what many saw as an impetuous, half-considered threat.
One well-known Iranian reformist writer, Ahmad Zeidabadi, likened the potential aftermath to the post-apocalyptic novel Blindness by José Saramago, where the world gradually loses its sight. Zeidabadi described Trump's attack as "the greatest threat posed against our country or any other country in the world throughout history."
He warned: "If electricity to 90 million people were to stop, homes and streets would be plunged into darkness, the elderly and the disabled would be trapped in residential towers, and water, gas, gasoline, and diesel would become scarce, followed soon by no food, no hygiene, and no transportation."
Warnings of Retaliation and War Crimes
Zeidabadi went on to say: "If the people of America or other countries do not stop this savage being, the Middle East will instantly become an unimaginable hell and then a barren and uninhabitable land." He labeled Trump as a mad individual who nonetheless holds the reins of the world's greatest military power.
Reza Nasri, an international lawyer with strong links to Iran's foreign affairs ministry, warned that if Trump followed through on his promise to attack Iran's power plants, it would not be a war crime committed in the chaos of battle but something premeditated and announced in advance. He argued that the lack of congressional or judicial oversight in the US highlights fundamental flaws in American politics.
Energy Infrastructure and Strategic Concerns
Mohammad Enayati, an energy expert widely quoted in Iranian media, noted that Iran's energy grid, with a 100,000-megawatt capacity, is a dispersed and broad target, making it difficult to knock out with a few airstrikes. The five largest Iranian power plants account for only 10% of the country's electricity generation, compared to 50% in Israel.
Enayati also pointed out that due to the spring holiday, consumption is lower than normal, making it easier to keep the grid operating. The exodus from Tehran during this period is larger than usual, with heavy traffic on roads out of the city. It is estimated that more than 3 million Iranians have been internally displaced by the ongoing conflict.
Diplomatic Hopes and Military Threats
Many Iranians, both civilians and diplomats, had hoped that Europe or Gulf states could persuade Trump to hold back. However, Iran's Revolutionary Guards were unrelenting in spelling out that they would retaliate by hitting the Gulf's energy infrastructure and desalination plants. Such a step could further wreck Gulf economies and cause an ecological and humanitarian crisis.
Iranian officials stated they would respond even to a tokenistic attack on a power station. Many commentators remain concerned by growing reports that the US could send land forces to seize Kharg Island in the Hormuz Strait, the hub for Iran's oil exports.
Historical Context and Future Implications
Ali Motahari, former parliament deputy speaker, believes the power plant attack threat is a deception designed to divert attention from plans to seize islands in the strait. Iran's defence council issued a stark warning: any enemy attempt to attack Iranian coasts or islands will lead to the mining of all access routes in the Persian Gulf, effectively blocking the entire region for extended periods.
The council added: "The memory of more than 1,000 mine clearers failing to clear a limited number of naval mines in the 1980s is still not forgotten. The only way for non-hostile countries to pass through the Strait of Hormuz is in coordination with Iran."
Iran continues to deny claims that it sent an intercontinental ballistic missile towards the British military base of Diego Garcia, a claim that led Israel to argue Europe is threatened by Iran's missile programme. British cabinet minister Steve Reed said: "There is no specific assessment that the Iranians are targeting the UK or [that they] even could if they wanted to."
Esmaeil Baqaei, the Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson, noted it was significant that NATO secretary general Mark Rutte admitted the alliance could not confirm missiles targeting the UK base were intercontinental ballistic missiles dispatched by Iran. Details of the incident remain elusive days later.
Israeli thinktanks claim Iran has reduced its missile launchers from 450 to 120 since the start of the war, highlighting the ongoing military tensions in the region.
