Experts have warned that the UK could face a record-breaking freezing winter following a period of extreme heat worldwide. A natural atmospheric phenomenon known as El Niño, which occurs every two to seven years, typically raises sea surface temperatures by 0.5°C above normal. However, forecasts indicate that this year's El Niño – already confirmed by scientists – could be stronger than usual, exacerbated by global heating from the climate crisis. This could significantly impact the UK's weather in early 2027, with a 'super El Niño' predicted to bring adverse winter conditions.
How will the El Niño affect the UK?
Meteorologist Sean Batty told STV that this El Niño is 'likely to blow the others out of the water'. He warned that the UK could experience its wettest winter ever, though rainfall is 'harder to predict'. There is also potential for 'much colder and snowier weather around Easter next year'. Batty added: 'One thing is for sure – this El Niño will bring some big headlines around the world once it properly kicks in later this year for the southern hemisphere’s summer and our winter in the north.' This could cause crop failures in countries like Australia and India, leading to rising prices for exported goods.
What makes it a super El Niño?
Meteorologists classify an El Niño as 'super' when ocean surface temperatures climb more than 1.5°C above the norm, while anything crossing the 2°C threshold is deemed extreme or exceptional. Researchers expressed surprise at the certainty of computer models regarding the strength of the upcoming El Niño. Speaking about its predicted impact on Scotland, Batty noted that Januarys during El Niño years tend to be fairly average, while Februarys are more complicated. 'Three of the eight El Niño Februarys I examined were colder than average, but February 1998 turned out to be Scotland’s warmest February on record,' he said. 'March shows a clearer signal, with seven of the eight years being warmer than average, while March 1998 ranks among the 30 warmest Marches on record.' The most consistent pattern he found was for April, which was colder than normal, while El Niño has generally led to warmer Mays.
Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, told The Guardian: 'Every El Niño is not the same; each one is unique with its own imprint on our weather. Advanced monitoring and an improved understanding of El Niño patterns allow the NWS to better predict and better prepare the public and our core partners for what is to come.'
