Recent headlines have been dominated by a spate of celebrity passings, but this sombre trend is not confined to the famous. Across the UK, mortality rates see a significant and predictable spike during the festive period and into the new year.
The Cold, Hard Data on Seasonal Mortality
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), fatalities consistently peak in January and December. These two months alone account for nearly 20% of all annual deaths. Recent figures illustrate the stark contrast: while an average of 1,269 people died each day in September 2016, that number jumped to 1,487 in December and 1,588 in January. In total, September saw over 10,000 fewer deaths than either of those winter months.
An analysis by Age UK of ONS data from 2014 to 2016 shows the monthly averages for England. January was the deadliest month with 153,933 deaths, followed closely by December with 150,670. In contrast, September recorded just 81,293.
Unpacking the Causes of the Festive Surge
While colder weather plays a role, the ONS notes this is a seasonal issue that disproportionately affects older people and those with serious pre-existing health conditions. Dr Suzanne Wylie, a GP and medical adviser for IQdoctor, confirms an "observable increase in deaths" during this time, typically from cardiovascular disease, respiratory illnesses like pneumonia and flu, and complications from chronic conditions.
"Christmas can be a time of joy, but it also highlights existing vulnerabilities, both medical and social, which can sadly contribute to poorer outcomes for some patients," Dr Wylie explains. She emphasises that it is often a case of multiple risk factors coinciding at once.
Strained Healthcare and Reluctant Patients
Access to medical care undergoes a significant shift during the holidays. "Healthcare services are under increased pressure, with reduced access to routine GP appointments and some community services scaled back," says Dr Wylie. This can lead to dangerous delays in assessment and treatment. Compounding the issue, patients may be more reluctant to seek help, not wanting to "make a fuss" or disrupt family plans.
This lack of support hits vulnerable demographics hardest, including older adults, people living alone, and those managing multiple long-term conditions. "Frail patients can deteriorate quickly if they develop an infection, become dehydrated, or experience a fall," Dr Wylie adds.
The Impact of Festive Excess and Stress
Changes to our normal routines also contribute. "Dietary excess, increased alcohol consumption, disrupted sleep and missed medications can all exacerbate underlying health conditions," notes Dr Wylie. Research indicates that heart attacks peak around Christmas Eve, potentially linked to stressful social interactions and uncharacteristic behaviours.
Consequently, the period between Boxing Day and New Year's Day, often called 'Twixmas', becomes exceptionally busy for hospitals and GP surgeries. They face a surge in acute problems, admissions from falls, alcohol-related harm, and severe flare-ups of chronic diseases.
The Mental Health and 'Holding On' Phenomenon
Contrary to popular belief, reported suicide rates are lowest in December. However, numbers often surge after Christmas, attributed to a 'rebound effect' and unmet expectations of social connection. Dr Wylie highlights that the season can intensify feelings of loneliness, depression and distress for many.
Conversely, many clinicians observe that some terminally ill patients seem to "hold on" until after the holidays. While not scientifically proven, hospice workers frequently witness patients surviving major events only to pass away shortly afterwards. Some professionals theorise it relates to the autonomic nervous system, with adrenaline sustaining them until a key milestone is reached, after which the body can "let go."
Seeking Support
If you are struggling with your mental health, support is available. You can call the Samaritans 24-hour helpline on 116 123, email jo@samaritans.org, or visit their website. Young people, or those concerned about a young person, can contact PAPYRUS via their HOPELINE247 on 0800 068 4141, text 88247, or email pat@papyrus-uk.org.
