A new panel of global experts has been launched to provide scientific guidance for countries seeking to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels and manage the growing risks of high oil prices, geopolitical instability, and extreme weather events. The initiative was announced on the opening day of a groundbreaking climate action meeting in Santa Marta, Colombia, where the host nation presented a draft roadmap for its own national energy transition.
High-Ambition Start to Global Conference
The first global conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels, held from 24-29 April, has brought together more than 50 nations, numerous subnational governments, and an estimated 2,800 civil society representatives. This “coalition of the willing” aims to reinvigorate international efforts to reduce planet-heating emissions from oil, gas, and coal.
The new science panel for global energy transition is intended to add intellectual weight to these efforts. Experts in climate science, economics, and technology will advise policymakers seeking to create roadmaps for moving beyond the fossil fuel era. Partly modeled on the UK’s climate change committee, the panel will include national and sector-level milestones for eliminating fossil fuels in line with scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century.
Leadership and Expertise
The panel will be chaired by Vera Songwe, Cameroonian co-chair of the High Level Expert Panel on Climate Finance; Ottmar Edenhofer, German director and chief economist of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; and Gilberto M Jannuzzi, a Brazilian professor of energy systems at Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Jannuzzi noted that the technical challenges are manageable: “Technically, there is no problem. The problem is how to disseminate the information and secure the financing.”
The panel’s formation follows calls by the president of COP30 in Belém to establish roadmaps for accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels and deforestation. André Aranha Corrêa do Lago encouraged governments and institutions to draw on the panel’s analyses, policy briefs, and country-level engagement to strengthen nationally determined contributions and inform sectoral strategies.
Support from Host Nations
The Colombian and Dutch hosts of the Santa Marta meeting have expressed support for the initiative, convened by Johan Rockström of the Potsdam Institute and Carlos Nobre of the University of São Paulo. Rockström emphasized that the presence of a third of the world’s countries at Santa Marta would help keep the transition on the global agenda. “These are solvable problems that can create better futures for local communities,” he said. “The science panel can play a unique role in providing updates on what needs to happen year by year.”
The 54 countries attending the fast-track transition conference include major fossil fuel producers such as Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil, and Angola, for whom giving up a major income source will be challenging. These challenges and potential solutions were outlined in Colombia’s new draft roadmap. Colombia gets about half of its export revenues from coal. The plan, drawn up by global experts with Colombian officials, states that a rapid switch to cheaper and more efficient renewables would bring long-term benefits to energy security, health, the climate, and the economy.
Economic Benefits and Roadmap Details
Reducing fossil fuel use by 90% by 2050 would allow energy demand to continue growing while generating direct economic benefits estimated at $280 billion over the next 24 years. “Considerable upfront investment is needed to achieve this transition, but by the early 2040s, this delivers annual net savings to the Colombian economy,” the plan states. The authors stressed that the outline needs to be debated and refined, but they hope it can inform the national debate.
Prof. Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds, expressed excitement about the roadmap. “It shows that it is cost effective to phase out petrol and diesel. And also very cost effective to build renewables. And now we all appreciate the importance of energy security.” He hopes other countries will follow suit and develop their own roadmaps and climate councils. “We want to work with countries to build internal capacity to do it themselves because they understand the opportunities, roadblocks, and political sensibilities within their countries.”
