Iceland's no campaign emerged victorious in the country's referendum on whether to restart European Union accession negotiations, securing approximately 52.8% of the vote, according to broadcaster RUV. The result, announced on Sunday morning after an overnight count, highlighted a deeply divided nation on the issue of EU membership.
Narrow margins and a divided nation
With Iceland's population barely exceeding 400,000, the margins were extremely tight. The no campaign, which had been well-funded throughout the contest, celebrated its win as opponents accused it of fearmongering tactics. Some compared these methods to those used by Brexit activists during the UK's 2016 referendum.
The no campaign's central strategy focused on portraying EU membership as a threat to Iceland's fishing and farming industries, two sectors closely tied to national identity. The results showed a significant split between voters in the capital region and those in the rest of the largely rural country, where some residents expressed concern that national identity could be forgotten.
The question on the ballot paper
The ballot question asked: "Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?" A second referendum would have been held once a deal was reached. This wording meant that a yes vote would have been a "yes, maybe," whereas a no vote was a clearer, more decisive move. One of the yes campaign's slogans, "Já til að sjá" ("yes to see"), was considered vague compared to the no campaign's more assertive messaging.
At a yes campaign gathering at Reykjavík Art Museum, supporters expressed frustration with the opposition's tactics. Þòrir Snoor, a 25-year-old yes supporter, said: "The no side has done a lot of fearmongering and done it very very well." He noted that while many of his peers believed the euro could address Iceland's high inflation and interest rates, "a lot of my friends have said they are scared of the European Union."
Snædis Inga Rúnarsdóttir, 30, who wore a blue EU cap, agreed that the no campaign had been louder and better funded. She said she would have to accept a potential no win, but criticized the "swirl of misinformation" surrounding the referendum.
Concerns over misinformation and foreign influence
Iceland's foreign minister, Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir, had previously expressed fears of a "Brexit moment," warning about the potential influence of misinformation, foreign interference, and AI in the referendum. Just before midnight, with votes still being counted, she told the Guardian that whatever the result, "at least Icelandic people have shown it was the right thing to have a vote." She added: "And what I like the most is now foreign policy is, everything is, on the agenda."
The outcome leaves Iceland's relationship with the EU unchanged for now, but the narrow margin and the concerns raised about misinformation suggest the debate over EU membership is far from settled.
